Boaz Golany, a professor at the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, reviewed a strategic shift in the list of threats facing the occupation state, indicating that the next phase may see the emergence of Turkey or Pakistan as main enemies. Golany, in an analysis published by the Hebrew newspaper 'Maariv', considered that Israel's security history passed through stages that began with Egypt as a classic enemy, then moved to Iraq, whose power eroded due to wars, leading to Iran, which he believes may soon be forced to abandon its confrontational role.
The writer explained that the competition for the title of 'arch-enemy' is currently confined to two regional powers, Turkey and Pakistan, given their possession of large regular armies and a broad Sunni population base. He pointed out that the paradox lies in the fact that both countries maintain close relations with the United States, Tel Aviv's primary strategic ally, which makes dealing with them complex and sensitive diplomatically and militarily.
Regarding the Turkish front, Golany noted that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has led an escalating path since the 'Mavi Marmara' incident in 2010, leading to a complete diplomatic rupture. He added that the current war in Gaza prompted Ankara to take unprecedented measures, including imposing a comprehensive economic embargo and issuing direct threats of military intervention, which places Turkey at the forefront of direct threats.
On the Pakistani side, the Israeli academic paused at the recent statements by Islamabad's Minister of Defense, which carried a sharply hostile tone towards Israel's existence. The Pakistani minister described Israel as a 'curse on humanity', considering it a cancerous entity planted in the heart of Palestine, statements that reflect the depth of ideological and political hostility that this nuclear state harbors towards the occupation.
Golany warned that the options available to Israel in confronting these two countries are 'equally bad', stressing that Tel Aviv does not have the luxury of choosing its adversaries in the next phase. He emphasized the need to begin building defensive and political strategies that take into account the possibility of confrontation with regional powers that possess military and human resources far exceeding what Israel faced in its previous wars.
The article concluded that Israel's only guarantee in facing this grim scenario is to maintain the strong alliance with Washington and protect it from any cracks. The writer believes that American power is the only tool capable of curbing the ambitions of Turkey or Pakistan, which requires the Israeli leadership to make every possible effort to ensure the continued military and political support from the White House.
Israel must prepare for a scenario in which one of these two countries confronts it immediately after the fighting against Iran ends.
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Israeli academic predicts identity of 'next enemy' after decline of Iranian threat