Israeli Study Center: Ceasefire with Tehran a 'Fragile Truce' Hiding Future Conflict

Research sources in Tel Aviv reported that the current strategic vision aligns with government directives in considering the conditional ceasefire with Iran as merely a temporary de-escalation. A strategic affairs research center believes that this agreement, which came after forty days of military confrontation, does not provide real guarantees for ending the fighting or achieving a decisive victory over the Iranian project in the region.

The institute noted in its analysis that the ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, represents a diplomatic truce to alleviate humanitarian suffering, but it lacks the required sustainability. The sources confirmed that the fragility of this path raises widespread concern in security circles, as its success is linked to the extent of the American administration's insistence on enforcing the fifteen provisions put forward by Donald Trump as a framework for a solution.

The analytical reading warned that the ongoing negotiations in Islamabad would be complex and long-term, with the possibility of military operations resuming at any moment not ruled out. The institute considered that the military achievements remain incomplete unless the Iranian nuclear threat is fully neutralized and the development of cross-border ballistic missiles is halted.

Israeli sources claimed that Tehran is trying to market the agreement as a 'great victory' to cover up the extent of the losses inflicted on its infrastructure and its collapsing economy. The analysis claimed that the Iranian regime has become internationally isolated after losing a large part of its missile arsenal and its field military leaders, amidst a suffocating living crisis suffered by the population inside the country.

Despite these losses, the institute acknowledged that geography poses major challenges, as Tehran is more than 1900 kilometers away from the Israeli border, making it a global threat. The study affirmed that Israel, despite its regional power, does not possess the sole ability to overthrow the regime in Tehran, which requires high-level strategic coordination with Washington.

Based on these facts, the center recommended that the United States be entrusted with leading the negotiating process with Iran, while the Israeli army focuses on confronting direct threats on the borders. The report stressed that the highest priority should be given to dismantling Hezbollah's capabilities in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip to ensure the security of settlements in the north and south.

The institute criticized what it described as the 'arrogant' speeches of some Israeli leaders that find no way to be implemented on the ground, calling for focusing on protecting residents in the front lines. It called for increasing military pressure on Hezbollah in parallel with opening direct diplomatic channels with the Lebanese government to impose a new security reality away from the influence of militias.

The center also directed sharp criticism at the European position, describing the absence of the old continent from the confrontation with Iran as 'shameful'. It urged European countries to fully classify Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and support talks aimed at disarming it, considering that the stability of the Middle East is linked to ending the hegemony of Shiite militias over Lebanese decision-making.

In a related context, the institute claimed that field changes in Syria and the collapse of some Iranian military capabilities may open the door to new opportunities for normalization in the region. Analysts believe that weakening the Iranian axis will facilitate the process of integrating Israel into the regional system, especially with Gulf countries that see Tehran as a common threat to their interests.

The center concluded that Israel must adopt a flexible diplomatic policy that demonstrates the 'justice of its cause' to the international community, instead of relying entirely on military force. It stressed that changing the rules of the game requires a bold strategy that balances military deterrence with smart political action in international forums and social media platforms to enhance Israel's image.

A partial agreement that does not end the nuclear threat or stop ballistic missiles will be a bitter victory for Israel.