Israeli warnings of an 'attrition trap' in Iran and field escalation breaking the truce in Gaza

Political and security circles within the occupation state, with the completion of the first month of direct military confrontation with Iran, witnessed a wide debate about the strategic utility of joint air operations with the United States. The general Israeli mood shifted from the euphoria of initial strikes to deep concern about the ability to decisively win the battle or end the existing missile threat.\n\nIn a sharp critical reading, former National Security Advisor, General Giora Eiland, described the current situation as 'Moscow 1812 scenario'. Eiland explained that Israel and Washington fell into a classic error, which is the large gap between declared goals and available means, assuming that aerial bombardment would force Tehran to negotiate.\n\nEiland affirmed that the Iranian leadership adopted a 'long breath' strategy similar to the Russian Tsar against Napoleon, refusing to surrender to American conditions. He considered that the 'aerial hell' unleashed by the coalition did not translate into tangible political results, but rather turned into a destructive act with no clear horizon for ending the conflict.\n\nAnalysis also pointed to 'naivety' in assessing Iran's ability to choke global trade through asymmetric weapons. Despite targeting the conventional fleet, Tehran proved the effectiveness of its naval mines, suicide drones, and 'sea-to-sea' missiles in threatening international waterways.\n\nThe Iranian threat did not stop at the Strait of Hormuz but extended to Bab al-Mandab, placing the international coalition in a position of 'passive defense'. This escalation led to an unprecedented global energy crisis, prompting American strategy to retreat and become confused in the face of the economic war's repercussions.\n\nOn the ground, reports from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) revealed that air strikes did not touch the 'strategic nerve' of Iranian capabilities. Sources confirm that Iranian missiles are stored in fortified bases hundreds of meters deep under mountains, making their destruction from the air almost impossible.\n\nEiland criticized the absence of any ground campaign or the ability to recruit allied forces on the ground due to the 'Iraq shock' that still dominates decision-making in Washington. He believed that merely watching aerial destruction aims only to satisfy the Israeli public, without bringing about a real change in the military balance of power.\n\nIn a related context, the former advisor warned against being drawn into secondary military campaigns such as 'Northern Arrows' against Hezbollah, considering them an 'attrition trap'. While the army focuses its efforts on the Iranian interior, the Galilee regions remain under continuous fire, which refutes promises of 'absolute victory'.\n\nOn the other hand, Tzachi Hanegbi adopts a different view calling for continued military pressure until Iranian capabilities are completely destroyed. Hanegbi believes that the continuation of the American decisive approach is what will change the balance of terror in the region, despite warnings of a prolonged confrontation.\n\nIn a sociological reading, researcher Benny Sabti pointed to potential rifts between the Iranian presidency and the Revolutionary Guard. Sabti attributes this tension to economic pressures resulting from the detention of oil funds in China and Russia, which could lead to internal collapse.\n\nAway from the Iranian front, occupation forces committed a serious breach of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip at dawn on Sunday. Medical sources reported the martyrdom of 6 Palestinians, including 3 police officers and a girl, after a raid targeted the Al-Mawasi area west of Khan Yunis.\n\nThis targeting is one in a series of continuous breaches of the agreement signed in October 2025, with the number of martyrs since its entry into force reaching 691. Human suffering continues in the Strip, with the total number of aggression victims since October 2023 exceeding 72,000 martyrs.\n\nRegarding the prisoner file, it was announced on Saturday that prisoner Marwan Fathi Harzallah (54 years old) was martyred inside Megiddo prison due to medical negligence. This incident raises the number of martyrs in the prisoner movement since the start of the war to 89, amid harsh and inhumane detention conditions.\n\nThis coincided with a legal escalation in the Israeli Knesset, where the National Security Committee approved a bill for the execution of Palestinian prisoners. This law, awaiting final vote, aims to tighten penalties against resistors, threatening to ignite the situation inside and outside prisons.\n\n"The current reality resembles the Moscow 1812 scenario; where the attacking axis believed that destroying facilities would lead to negotiations, but the Iranian leadership chose a long-breath strategy.