Three Weeks of Confrontation: Gains and Losses in the American War on Iran

The military confrontation led by the United States and Israel against Iran entered its third week, reaching the halfway point of the timeline set by President Donald Trump to end operations. While field reports speak of tangible military progress, high human, economic, and political costs are emerging, putting the American strategy under scrutiny.

The US administration holds onto a list of military achievements, with official sources confirming the success of forces in destroying large parts of Iran's air defenses and naval fleet. Data also indicates a sharp decline in missile attacks directed at Israel by over 90%, coinciding with intensive targeting of drone factories and ballistic missiles.

On the other hand, American forces were not immune to losses, as the deaths of at least 13 soldiers were confirmed, some of whom fell to friendly fire according to the official narrative. Around 200 other soldiers were injured, while advanced military equipment suffered severe damage, including F-15 and F-35 aircraft, in addition to the malfunction of vital radar systems in the region.

International press sources reported that satellite images showed a US radar malfunctioning in Jordan and the destruction of at least seven air defense sites in several Arab countries. The cost of a single F-35 aircraft forced to make an emergency landing is estimated at around $100 million, reflecting the extent of material attrition in this confrontation.

Washington is currently facing a severe logistical crisis, with ammunition stockpiles decreasing by up to 25%, prompting the administration to ask arms companies to double their production rate. The government has requested additional funding from Congress worth $200 billion to cover the escalating costs of ongoing military operations in the Middle East.

The confrontation quickly turned into something akin to an 'oil war,' as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed 20% of global energy supplies. Oil prices jumped to touch the $114 per barrel mark, amidst dozens of targeting incidents affecting oil facilities and gas fields in nine countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Qatar.

The war caused a silent diplomatic crisis with Washington's allies in Asia, particularly South Korea, Japan, and Thailand, which rely vitally on oil from the Strait. Observers believe that the US entering the war without prior coordination led to supply disruptions for these countries, causing widespread discontent in Asian capitals.

India was directly affected by the repercussions of the conflict, as it relies on 40% of its oil needs through the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to the impact on remittances from Indian workers in the Gulf. This crisis is considered a blow to the strategic partnership between Washington and New Delhi, especially given the ongoing American competition with Chinese influence in the region.

On the Western front, President Trump sparked a crisis with European allies by calling them 'cowards' for refusing to participate in securing maritime navigation. The matter did not stop there; he also described NATO as a 'paper tiger,' hinting at the possibility of his country unilaterally withdrawing from the alliance without consulting Congress.

Despite the assassinations of senior leaders in Tehran, including the Supreme Leader, the strategic goal of overthrowing the regime has not yet been achieved. Contrary to American intelligence estimates, Iranian cities did not witness widespread popular protests demanding government change, putting Washington in a complex political predicament.

The United States now finds itself facing the dilemma of withdrawal; ending the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be a harsh strategic defeat. In an attempt to break the stalemate, Washington is preparing to send a force of 2,500 Marines, supported by naval and amphibious units from Asia, towards the Gulf early next month.

Forecasts indicate that the upcoming mission for US forces may include taking control of Kharg Island or parts of the Iranian coast adjacent to the Strait. This military move aims to create a buffer zone to prevent Revolutionary Guard forces from threatening international navigation and to secure the flow of oil to global markets once again.

In his recent statements, President Trump tried to paint an optimistic picture, asserting that American goals are being achieved and that the end of the war is very near. However, he placed the responsibility for protecting the Strait in the future on the countries benefiting from it, indicating that his country would only provide technical assistance when absolutely necessary.

Trump concluded his stance with a striking escalation, issuing a final ultimatum to Tehran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz within just 48 hours. The American president threatened that if there was no response, US forces would begin unprecedented strikes on power stations and vital infrastructure deep within Iran.

Trump describes NATO as a 'paper tiger' and threatens to strike Iranian power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened within 48 hours.