Saudi Crown Prince's Visit to Washington: Strategic Ambitions and Delayed Normalization

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is preparing for a state visit to the United States in mid-November, marking his first trip to Washington in seven years, amid widespread anticipation regarding the visit's agenda and the political and economic messages it carries. While U.S. President Donald Trump promotes the possibility of achieving a "major breakthrough" in the normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Israel before the end of the year, such expectations seem far from reality, as Riyadh focuses on defensive and strategic priorities that do not include opening relations with Tel Aviv at this stage.

American and Saudi sources indicate that the visit will culminate in the signing of a joint defense agreement between the two countries, similar to the security agreement recently concluded by Washington with Qatar. The Kingdom is also seeking advanced "F-35" fighter jets, in addition to civil nuclear cooperation that would grant it partial access to sensitive American technology. These steps reflect a Saudi ambition to redefine the relationship with Washington based on a partnership of equals, rather than the security dependency that has characterized the relationship for decades.

Observers believe that this shift comes in the context of a Saudi realization that the world is no longer unipolar, and that reliance on the American umbrella is no longer a sufficient guarantee for regional security. Nevertheless, Washington still views Riyadh through the lens of economic benefit, especially in the fields of energy and investment, without adopting a comprehensive vision to deal with the profound transformations taking place in the Kingdom. This difference in perspective is considered one of the reasons for the political chill between the two sides in recent years, which the Crown Prince seeks to overcome through this visit.

However, the most intriguing aspect of the visit is the debate surrounding the normalization file with Israel. While Trump continues to hint at a historic agreement being close, Saudi sources confirm that normalization is not on the table in the near term, especially after the Israeli war on Gaza, which left tens of thousands of casualties and brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of Arab consciousness. In this context, Washington's attempts to integrate Israel into the region through the "Abraham Accords" appear to be stagnant, as it has become clear that bypassing the Palestinian issue was nothing more than a short-lived diplomatic illusion.

In a statement to The New York Times on Sunday, Saudi commentator Ali Al-Shihabi states that normalization without a "significant and irreversible" Israeli step towards establishing a Palestinian state has become unrealistic. He adds that the Kingdom views normalization as a political leverage that cannot be relinquished without a real counterpart. This position reflects a delayed Saudi realization that the policy of unconditional openness to Israel, as seen in other Gulf states, has not achieved stability or significant strategic gains.

Nevertheless, the Saudi position is not without contradiction. While Riyadh rejects public normalization, Israeli and American sources claim that the Kingdom maintains undisclosed security and intelligence communication channels with Israel. Analysts believe that this dual approach grants the Kingdom tactical flexibility, but at the same time reflects excessive caution that hinders its leadership role in the region. The publicly stated Saudi position supporting a two-state solution has yet to translate into a concrete initiative to revive negotiations or curb escalating tensions.

Domestically, the Saudi leadership faces a challenge between its declared reform ambitions and its restrictive political practices. The "Vision 2030" launched by the Crown Prince aims to modernize the economy and free society from dependence on oil, but it still clashes with the absence of genuine political openness. Some critics point out that the intense focus on economic and technological transformations sometimes comes at the expense of public freedoms and political accountability, which may weaken the resilience of these reforms in the long term.

Washington, for its part, is also dealing with the Saudi Crown Prince with clear pragmatism. After President Biden described him as a "pariah" during his election campaign in the wake of journalist Jamal Khashoggi's murder, his administration has returned to treating him as an indispensable partner in energy and regional issues. This contradiction reveals a deeper crisis in American foreign policy, which oscillates between a values-based discourse and the demands of interests, without being able to formulate a consistent approach towards authoritarian allies in the region.

At the recent investment forum held in Riyadh, discussions focused on artificial intelligence and renewable energy projects, while the topic of Gaza or its reconstruction was notably absent. This neglect, which was not accidental, reflects new priorities within the Saudi leadership that prioritize economic development over traditional political commitments to Arab issues. However, Saudi caution regarding involvement in the Palestinian file does not negate its awareness that regional stability cannot be achieved without a fundamental resolution to this chronic conflict.

The Crown Prince's visit to Washington represents a new chapter in the relationship between the two countries, but it is also a test of both parties' ability to reconcile ambition with interest. Saudi Arabia seeks to establish itself as an emerging power in a changing world, while Washington attempts to rebuild its influence in the Middle East through defense deals and situational