About the Efficiency of the Israeli Army and Aggression Against the Palestinians

Israeli military analysts have again warned of the judicial reform plan, and its impact on the efficiency of the Israeli army, and the exacerbation of the phenomenon of members of the reserve forces in the Israeli army stopping compliance in military service in protest of the government's progress in the judicial reform plan to weaken the judiciary, and the extent of the impact of this phenomenon on the competencies of the army and his readiness for war. According to Israeli military analysts, the months of September and October are two dramatic months in this respect, and that the past month, despite the lack of new developments among the reservists, was not a good month for the army.

The escalation in the protests will lead directly to an exacerbation of the crisis within the army, which sees the Haredi recruitment law as a central issue that would affect the army and not just the reservists.

What worries the Israeli army more than the tension on the security fronts is mainly the repercussions of the deep crisis in Israeli society on the competencies and cohesion of the army.

According to military analysts, the direct importance lies mainly in the Air Force, and according to various estimates, more than 20% of all reserve pilots and about 25% of combat pilots have not returned to flying and training for about two months. And it does not matter that only about half of them informed their leaders that they had stopped flying due to protest, and another part for other reasons in order to leave the door open.

In light of these data and a more pessimistic and perhaps more realistic assessment of the exacerbation of the crisis in Israeli society, the Israeli army warns that the consequences and effects will be felt in a direct relationship to the army, such as the return of protests that are expected to occur in many points of friction this September.

These warnings may be exaggerated, especially given the surplus military force that the Israeli army possesses, including the manpower of regular and reserve soldiers, and the superior capabilities possessed by the army and its reliance not only on the Air Force. Perhaps it is directed by the leadership of the Israeli army and senior officers in the reserve and former ones in the army, and serves the protesters against the judicial reform plan to pressure the Israeli prime minister to back down from the plan of the ruling coalition, and its impact on the entire Israeli political system, not just the army.

These warnings come at a time when Israel is going through a number of great challenges. The tension on the northern border, and the mutual threat from the Lebanese resistance and its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and from the Israeli Minister of Security, Yoav Galant, towards the head of the political bureau of Hamas in the West Bank, Saleh al-Arouri, who lives in Lebanon and is responsible for the activities of the resistance in the West Bank.

In addition to the escalation in the Palestinian arena, especially in the occupied West Bank, and the ignition of the Palestinian resistance, and there are no immediate solutions to limit the individual and organized resistance operations. Events may escalate, and the escalation will extend to the Gaza Strip in light of the Israeli threat to carry out assassinations against the leaders of the resistance.

The escalation of tension in the Lebanese arena, and Gallant's statements in New York, along with Hassan Nasrallah's clear statements that any assassination attributed to Israel on Lebanese soil will lead to a response, seem to indicate a further escalation of tension. along the northern border, but so far things are under control.

According to some military analysts, during the past two weeks, several indicators have been identified in the security system indicating a slight decrease in the level of tensions. Perhaps this is an attempt to take closer control of the field activities of local Hezbollah operatives.

The expectation is that these tensions with Hezbollah in Lebanon will accompany Israel in the coming months. And the borders drawn by Hassan Nasrallah and the granting of immunity to the leaders of the Palestinian resistance in Lebanon, and this is clear evidence of the Israeli dilemma, in an attempt to form clear regional borders and fear of a security escalation and perhaps even a war in the north.

With all this and the reality of the Middle East that is heating up at any moment, but despite the escalation of threatening statements, the Israeli security establishment believes that Israel and Hezbollah are not on the brink of war.

Returning to the Palestinian arena, it is the most explosive, and according to the admission of the Israeli security establishment, the festive period is characterized by high security sensitivity.

Although it is estimated that Israel may carry out an assassination of the leaders of the resistance in the Gaza Strip, which may turn into a military operation, military analysts expect that the resistance factions, especially Hamas, will in the near future intensify their efforts to undermine the security situation in the West Bank as well as inside Israel.

After a long period of relative silence, it seems that the Gaza Strip is also waking up, with reference to the talk about re-activating the return camps, and the Israeli concern about the occurrence of acts of resistance on the eastern borders of the Strip.

In light of the warning about the impact of the judicial reform plan on the efficiency of the Israeli army, the increase in resistance activities in the West Bank, and the claim of a high and increasing level of threats from the Hamas leadership, and saying that it is not excluded that at some point the firing of rockets from the Strip will resume.

It is widely believed that part of the transformation that is now gradually taking place in the Gaza Strip is also related to the efforts made by Hamas to receive more money and economic aid from the Qataris and other international parties, and also to try to put pressure on Israel in order to obtain additional civil and economic concessions.

These contradictions in the Israeli narrative, and what is happening on the ground, is that the resistance takes the utmost care and caution in waiting for an aggression on the Strip, as well as saying that the security situation in the West Bank will deteriorate further, which will eventually lead to a large-scale operation in the Gaza Strip, which is It is not a one-day process, but it may happen gradually.

At the same time, the Israeli dilemma, the competence of the army, and the aggression against the Palestinians are raised, and about whether Israel should reap a price from Hamas in the Gaza Strip for that, these are illogical allegations, in light of the Israeli threat to assassinate the leaders of the resistance, the aggressive policy, and the terror of settlers in the West Bank did not stop, nor did Ben Gvir's actions against Palestinian prisoners.