Confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz: Is Washington Sliding Towards a Ground Invasion of Iranian Islands?

Coinciding with the Pentagon's decision to send 2,500 Marines to the Strait of Hormuz, the American-Israeli coalition carried out airstrikes targeting Iran's Kharg Island, the vital artery that processes about 90% of Tehran's oil exports. These developments come amidst an international mobilization that included the European Union expanding its 'Aspides' naval mission, Britain sending thousands of interceptor drones, in addition to South Korean and Ukrainian reinforcements to the region.

Field data indicates that the US administration may move beyond an air bombardment strategy towards the option of direct ground control over strategic islands such as Kharg, Larak, Hormuz, and Qeshm, with the aim of tightening its grip on the strait and encircling Bandar Abbas port. This approach comes despite internal military warnings that controlling these islands would require thousands of soldiers and complex supply lines, as well as the risks of confronting hundreds of thousands of Revolutionary Guard elements in an open combat zone.

Media sources reported that US President Donald Trump ignored warnings from military leaders, led by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kin, regarding Tehran's ability to disrupt the global shipping lane using mines and drones. In contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is promoting the idea of a 'quick victory,' based on the results of previous operations, which raises concerns about a gap between political ambitions and the field reality that could end in a catastrophic war of attrition for the global economy.

Amidst this escalation, varying scenarios emerge within decision-making circles in Washington; while some push for gradual involvement in a ground invasion, other advisors, such as David Sacks, propose a strategy of 'declaring victory and withdrawing' to avoid getting bogged down in a long-term conflict, which places the region at a dangerous crossroads that could reshape the map of influence in the Gulf.

The decision to call up Marines indicates that the Trump administration is preparing to transition from the idea of destroying Kharg Island through air bombardment to subjecting it to direct American occupation.