The interim deal will likely take place.

Numerous data indicate that the interim deal will be concluded, most likely before the end of this month, with the start of the Knesset's summer recess, during which it is difficult to bring down the government.

First, because Netanyahu promised US President Donald Trump to conclude the deal, but he needs additional time until the end of this month to avoid the collapse of his government. Trump, on the other hand, is pushing for the deal to be concluded due to his regional and international priorities, and because of widespread demands from countries in the region, Europe, and even the entire international community to reach an agreement.

Second, Netanyahu needs a political achievement that will bolster his popularity ahead of the elections expected at the end of this year, or at most next March, to avoid passing the budget during an election year marked by increasing populist rhetoric and demands.

Third, the Israeli military is pushing hard to conclude the deal, feeling exhausted and believing the war has reached a dead end and exhausted its objectives. The military establishment's position in this context is clear, influential, and resolute.

Fourth, Hamas has shown remarkable flexibility compared to its previous positions, which is understandable given the ongoing genocide and the need for a "warrior's rest" to allow for a breather and regrouping.

Fifth, there are expected incentives for Netanyahu from the deal, such as halting his trial, progress on the normalization process, or even US approval of the annexation of parts of the West Bank. This is in addition to the involvement of Palestinian, Arab, regional, and international parties in shaping the "day after" in the Gaza Strip in a way that serves Israeli interests and goals, or a significant portion of them.

Sixth and finally, internal pressure is mounting within Israel as military casualties mount. Dozens of soldiers were killed during June and the first half of July, fueling popular protests and calls for a deal to end the war.

Yes, the impact of military resistance operations should not be exaggerated, but at the same time their importance and influence should not be underestimated.