Regional settlement and the Palestinian issue in light of the upcoming American vision

In our current era, the world is experiencing a state of great confusion resulting from the collapse of the major "progress" projects that prevailed in the twentieth century. On the one hand, "Soviet-style socialism" has ended, and on the other hand, the Western capitalist model faces fateful challenges, with the erosion of the "consumer capitalism" system and the decline of the welfare state model. These major transformations have reshaped the rules of global conflict and the international system, albeit slowly, towards the end of the unipolar international system with the emergence of multiple poles, which may later contribute positively to changing the equations related to our Palestinian national cause, as the tools of economic and political control have now become more complex, and part of the components of the Islamic State, ISIS and Al-Nusra organizations have become part of the tools that are employed to achieve the goals of hegemony in the Middle East, according to the exchanges of roles in Afghanistan, Sudan and Syria, and as is the case with the support of a number of Gulf Arab states and their roles in addition to America's allies and the poles of neoliberalism.

Despite these major transformations that the world has been witnessing for some time, the Palestinian issue remains central to international calculations, especially with the continuation of American attempts to arrange the region in a way that serves its strategic interests, taking advantage of these transformations in light of Russia’s preoccupation with the proxy war in Ukraine and China’s preoccupation with the economic war and the crises in the China Sea and Taiwan, in addition to protecting its colonial project in the region represented by Israel, and ensuring its hegemony and superiority. With the return of talk about Donald Trump and his project to resolve regional conflicts, the features of a vision based on imposing new facts on the ground appear, far from any just settlement that meets the legitimate and inalienable rights of our Palestinian people.

During Trump’s first term, the “Deal of the Century” shaped the features of his vision for the region, as it sought to rearrange the cards in a way that would serve Israel first and last and his leadership in the region. The deal focused on Arab-Israeli normalization and the abolition of the political rights of the Palestinians or even the Arab Peace Initiative project, in an attempt to transform the Palestinian issue into a humanitarian and economic issue instead of being an issue of national liberation and political rights.

Despite the deal’s failure, its approach has not ended. Similar arrangements have emerged elsewhere in the region, such as in Lebanon, Syria, and before that in Iraq and other countries, according to the repercussions of the first phase (the so-called Arab Spring) of implementing the New Middle East vision, the second phase of which is being implemented today. American interventions there, especially after the ceasefire in Lebanon, the fragile stability arrangements there, and the arrangements that took place in Syria, have guaranteed its interests and Israel’s interests by creating new facts aimed at keeping these countries in a state of weakness and internal division that prevents the formation of a future strategic threat.

On another note, despite the declared relations between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, some sources indicate that there is hidden tension between the two sides. Trump has sent troubling messages to Netanyahu, which raises questions about the future of their relationship and its impact on Israeli domestic policies, especially in light of the challenges facing the current Israeli government, which is likely to witness changes in order to facilitate the implementation of Trump’s vision for the region.

In addition, today's eyes are turning to the West Bank more dangerously than before, as a number of reports and leaks indicate that Trump may support Netanyahu's plans to annex parts of the West Bank and expand settlements, which may lead to the creation of isolated Palestinian cantons, which threatens to undermine the project of an independent Palestinian state with sovereignty and geographical contiguity over all the occupied territories and its capital, Jerusalem, which Trump had considered the capital of Israel and moved his embassy to.

Given these facts, it seems that Trump is seeking to reshape the political landscape in the Middle East in line with the interests of the United States, Israel, and the money empire, using a combination of pressure and threats to achieve his goals. This approach may lead to the imposition of new facts on the ground, as happened in Lebanon and Syria, where arrangements were reached that guarantee American and Israeli interests, which raises questions about the future of the region in light of these policies.

Therefore, the next stage requires regional actors, especially us Palestinians, to make an accurate assessment of the expected American policies, to benefit from the lessons of the past and to seriously and realistically review the policies, and to work on formulating strategies that are compatible with the new challenges, to guarantee our rights and national interests in light of the accelerating international and regional changes, even if we maintain reasonable optimism about the changes resulting from the Israeli aggression of genocide and uprooting, regarding which a ceasefire agreement was reached, a topic that I will address and its repercussions in the next article.

With Trump's return to the scene, the outlines of completing his vision for the region become clear, which is based on:

1. In the West Bank, after Trump’s previous approach of approving the Israeli annexation of Jerusalem, Trump promised Netanyahu during his first term to support annexation plans and settlement expansion. This reveals a larger goal of dismantling the West Bank into isolated cantons, linked to each other by roads under complete Israeli control. These cantons, which may be presented to us or offered to us as a political entity less than a state and more than an autonomous government, effectively preclude any chance of establishing a sovereign Palestinian state geographically contiguous with the Gaza Strip and implementing national rights.

This project not only aims to deprive our Palestinian people of their inalienable rights, but also seeks to establish the reality of occupation and settlement as an integral part of the geopolitical arrangements in the region.

2. In the Gaza Strip, Trump’s focus on long-term arrangements in Gaza, such as a ceasefire under American conditions imposed on Israeli policy and on Hamas through Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish mediators, reflects a strategic goal of keeping the Strip as a separate, besieged entity, completely isolated from the West Bank, under limited self-administration whose form is not yet known, which is what the West called “the day after,” subject to Israeli and American supervision. These arrangements guarantee the exclusion of Gaza from any comprehensive Palestinian national project, leading to the political and geographical division of the Palestinians, their land and their people.

3. Regional trade arrangements: According to his vision, Trump’s goal is not limited to political aspects only, but also seeks to strengthen regional trade and economic arrangements that ensure Israel’s integration into the region as a dominant economic power. By linking the interests of the Gulf states and Israel economically, Trump is establishing a new reality that makes Israel a major partner for these countries through major multinational companies, ensuring continued American and Israeli dominance over the region’s resources and markets, specifically the energy, transportation, technology, and agriculture sectors.

What is happening today is not just a political reordering of the region, but rather a comprehensive attempt to dismantle the Palestinian national liberation project. Therefore, there are a number of challenges that must be faced:

1. At the internal Palestinian level, ending the division and rebuilding broad national unity on the basis of democracy and participation, with an independent national decision away from external influences, to overcome the pressures related to the so-called “renewed authority”, renewing the construction and development of the Palestine Liberation Organization as a comprehensive house with its leadership role as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, and the owner of political and legal jurisdiction over Palestinian geography, which requires formulating a new political vision that restores consideration to the rights of our Palestinian people and to the national liberation cause its comprehensive status, and confronts attempts to liquidate the cause, through the rapid implementation of what was agreed upon in “Beijing” in a way that enables the management of Gaza’s affairs in accordance with what was stipulated in the terms of that agreement by forming a Palestinian national consensus government to be able to undertake reconstruction with a broad popular incubator for this government that enables it to work on the ground, and so that there are no loopholes that some regional and international parties are trying to exploit to impose their interference in national affairs and impose a non-national administration in Gaza. Then, the invitation was issued by President Abu Mazen in his official capacity for a broad Palestinian national meeting attended by all nationalists, not limited to factions only, until the membership of the Palestinian National Council is rectified and it convenes according to the rules, and the democratic entitlement of our people is implemented by holding general elections, considering that the people are the source of authority.

2. At the regional and international levels, enhancing work with popular movements, civil societies, and emerging political and economic blocs that have demonstrated their increasing support for the Palestinian cause, especially in light of the escalation of international solidarity against the occupation, its racist policies, and the crimes of genocide, ethnic uprooting, and holocausts that have been carried out in the Gaza Strip during the past period, as well as in the West Bank, especially in its camps.

3. Developing partnerships with international boycott movements to expand their influence on governments and companies involved in supporting the occupation, completing political diplomatic work in international forums in order to obtain full membership status in the United Nations, and working with emerging international alliances to confront US policies in providing immunity to Israel, and in order to isolate it internationally based on the charges it faces before international courts and the status of its racist entity.

Trump's upcoming vision, which combines threats, economic and political interests, and the empowerment of global financial empires to play a role in the region, shows that our Palestinian people are facing a decisive moment in their history. Either we can build a comprehensive, unified, and rational resistance strategy that takes into account the circumstances of our people and the changing situation in the world and the region, enabling us to achieve our national political rights, or attempts to dismantle our national liberation project by the enemies of our people will continue.

Despite all the pressures and threats, there remains hope in the steadfastness of our Palestinian people and their increasing international support, as was evident from the shifts in world public opinion, especially in Europe and the United States, as a result of the crimes and holocausts of the Israeli enemy in Gaza in particular, and the steadfastness and resistance of our people there despite the extent of the pain. The justice that the Palestinian people seek is not just a national demand, but rather a humanitarian issue that affects the conscience of the world and an international legal, political and moral responsibility, which requires everyone to confront the plans of hegemony and liquidation, and work to achieve a just peace that ends the occupation first and restores rights to their legitimate owners, foremost among which is our right to self-determination and national independence on the path to defeating the Zionist project, so that there is a place for justice, equality and dignity.