Ideal conditions for a swap deal... What about the guarantees?

The Doha negotiations between the mediators, Israel and Hamas have reached a very advanced stage, overcoming some of the important obstacles that prevented reaching an agreement throughout the previous consultations over more than 13 months. These days, there is talk of progress in the components of the agreement formula, and that the ideal conditions have been created for a deal that until now could not be reached.

With the progress that led to a real breakthrough, the backstage of the negotiations is no longer a secret. News of the deal, its stages, implementation mechanisms and timeframe have become the talk of the street, especially in the Gaza Strip, where the people there are eager to hear news that will restore their smile that they have lost over the course of more than 460 days, by achieving a ceasefire agreement and ending this disastrous war on Gaza, so that they can catch their breath for the first time after the massive destruction that brought them woes, difficulties and suffering.

Our great people in Gaza, the displaced, are looking forward to returning to the northern Gaza Strip in the middle of the first phase, to receiving the first prisoners and more humanitarian aid, and to preparing to monitor the occupation army as it withdraws partially but not completely. Accordingly, the ground maneuver may end quickly.

Today, all eyes are on Doha again, where the details of the exchange deal are expected to be finalized in the presence of representatives of Presidents Trump and Biden, while Israel is busy today with attempts to ratify the agreement due to the orientations of extremists led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, who is threatening to resign, and Smotrich, who opposes any agreement, but their opposition and even their resignation will not affect Netanyahu, who can pass the agreement.

Given the interconnected stages of the deal, with precise timetables and agreed-upon steps in the mechanisms for releasing prisoners, especially Palestinians, the important question here is related to the guarantees and pledges to implement the agreement, especially everything related to the methods of the Israeli army’s withdrawal from the areas that were agreed to be left. Was the United States able to bridge the gap and the controversial positions and actually provide guarantees to Hamas and the resistance to prevent Israel from returning to war and resuming it? Is the Trump administration considered capable of imposing the terms of the guarantees on Israel and forcing it to implement them, as we see the example of Lebanon daily and the Israeli army’s violations of the agreement there? The second question related to the United States is: What are the gains and advantages that Israel will benefit from in exchange for agreeing to the exchange deal?

Will the United States cooperate with it in developing plans to destroy the Iranian nuclear project, or normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, or impose sovereignty over the West Bank? And how will all these issues affect the Palestinian cause, especially since the United States is interested in drawing a new Middle East according to its mood?

The exchange deal that will bring about a ceasefire in Gaza seems to be the most important, and it must be implemented and its continuity ensured until the aggression is stopped, even partially, on the way to reaching a complete and final cessation of the war and lifting the injustice from the Gaza Strip.