A new study published in the British medical journal The Lancet has concluded that the Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip has significantly underestimated the number of Palestinians killed in Israel's genocidal war.

The study looked at the period between October 7, 2023, and June 30, 2024, and found that there were 64,260 “traumatic injury deaths” during that time period. At the end of June 2024, the Ministry of Health in Gaza said the death toll was 37,877, a 41% undercount.

As of October 2024, the study said, the number of Palestinians killed by Israeli military action may have exceeded 70,000. The latest figures from the Gaza Health Ministry put the death toll at 46,006.

Explaining the methodology, the study said it used “capture and recovery methods to estimate total deaths from traumatic injuries in the Gaza Strip from October 7, 2023 to June 30, 2024. By combining three datasets – official hospital lists, the Ministry of Health survey, and social media obituaries – we provide a mortality estimate that takes underreporting into account.”

The study only takes into account deaths resulting from violence and not indirect deaths resulting from the Israeli blockade and the destruction of medical and other civilian infrastructure.

The figures released by the Gaza Health Ministry have been the subject of intense scrutiny by Israeli officials and their Western backers. In the early days of the genocidal war, President Biden questioned their accuracy, but a senior State Department official later admitted that the true death toll was likely higher than the Health Ministry was reporting.

The number of indirect deaths from the Israeli blockade is unclear but is likely to be much higher than violent deaths. In a letter written by experts and published in The Lancet in July 2024, the journal estimated that if the war had ended by then, it would have killed 186,000 people, including 37,396 violent deaths (based on Ministry of Health figures in June 2024) and indirect deaths.