Iran Sells Its Cards... to Save Its Head

The international conflict has always intensified in every corner of the world and every land without exception. The conflict has intensified within Europe over the demarcation of borders and the affiliation of nationalities and minorities...

Suddenly, Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei proposed moving from the principle of "strategic patience" to a new principle he called "tactical retreat", at a time when the battle was raging and Israel was advancing and bombing the party and Lebanon daily, and continuing to target the party and its leaders.

Originally, it was never proposed that Iran would sacrifice for its arms. The equation is not equal between them, nor is it a Win Win equation, but rather an Iran Win equation at the expense of countries and its arms therein. These arms are tasked with securing Tehran's regional and international interests and protecting Iranian territory. As for the logistical, material and military support, it was only for that purpose.

For 4 decades, the Iranian regime has been creating tools for itself in the region and the world. It provides it with money, weapons, and all the necessary supplies to sustain its “strategic steadfastness” and to endure its “strategic patience” with the aim of achieving victories in its countries, so that Tehran can later employ these victories throughout the region according to its interests. So it is not surprising that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi came out, in the wake of the strikes that the party is being subjected to in Lebanon, and declared that “the focus with European countries is currently on talks.”

Iran sells papers... to save its head

According to the theory of “strategic patience” and strategic steadfastness, the regime in Tehran supported all its allied forces, and was proud that it had lifted them from a primitive stage to a stage of militarization and transforming them into armed organizations parallel to armies that influence their countries, their region, and the geography of the region, pushing them to seize the reins of power or influence them effectively. It exploited their sacrifices and losses to negotiate with the West in general, and with Washington in particular, over the lives of their fighters and the destruction of the countries it controls.

But today's changes have made Tehran jump off the ship before it sinks. It has been subjected to successive blows that have made it start selling papers to gain their price before they burn.

According to the theory of "strategic patience" and strategic steadfastness, the regime in Tehran supported all its allied powers

Iraq began its "independence"

In Iraq, the regime in Tehran believed that its control over the neighboring country was permanent and eternal. It did not test the Iraqi popular mood, which, although it had previously suffered from injustice and oppression, would not accept replacing one occupation with another, and would not accept the continued looting of its wealth by anyone inside through corruption or in the surroundings through the investment and exploitation of armed organizations. There is no astonishment in front of our vision of the regime in Iraq paving its way towards independence, nor is there astonishment in its steps towards Iraqi sovereignty, even if slowly, carefully and patiently.

In contrast, Tehran did not hide its annoyance with Baghdad's steps, and its multiple pressures were clear financially, economically, and security-wise, perhaps to bring it back into its sphere of influence, as it constitutes the first bridge to the arms and the last fortress of Iranian territory.

Syria is out of the game

Tehran invested in its expansionist projects in Syria, spent billions on the regime, and supported it with human, security, and military resources to survive and endure. It was said that the debts owed by Damascus to Iran during the civil war exceeded 35 billion dollars. Meanwhile, the Syrian citizen still stands in line for more than 48 hours to get a few liters of gasoline because Tehran refused to provide additional shipments of petroleum products.

In addition, after the "Al-Aqsa Flood", Damascus informed Tehran that it would not participate in any military confrontation with Tel Aviv of any kind. Rather, Syria is waiting for the circumstances that will distance it from the axis of resistance, and the positive Arab approach towards it motivates it to take this direction.

… The Party Alone

The party alone took upon itself the task of “confronting and steadfastness” despite the diminishing forces involved in the Iranian axis, linking the fate of Lebanon to the fate of the Gaza Strip. Despite Gaza becoming a thing of the past, the party continued what it called the “war of support” for Gaza, which turned into a destructive war for the southern suburbs of Beirut and the villages and towns of the south, all the way to the Bekaa and a large number of other Lebanese regions in the Chouf, Jbeil and Keserwan...

Originally, it was never proposed that Iran would sacrifice for its arms, as the equation is not equal between them.

From the attack on the southern suburb that targeted the party’s secretary-general, to the pager and wireless bombings, to the assassination of the leaders of the Radwan Force and others, this new war carries within it a radical change in all the prevailing theories about deterrence and the rules of engagement, and what is related to the previous calculations and estimates of the nature of the conflict and the narratives of the “collapse of the enemy entity,” and its weakness described as “weaker than a spider’s web.”

Today, the party is caught between the Tel Aviv trap and the humanitarian and organizational catastrophe. He is in a very critical predicament, as he cannot declare a ceasefire and abandon the support war and his support for Hamas, after Tehran pushed him to adopt it and relied on him to repel Israeli attacks on it. At the same time, he is no longer able to bear more human losses, whether within the organization or within the environment that supports it.

The new war changed traditional readings, including what was said about the deterrence system, and about continuing to receive similar strikes, and about responding to responding, and the equations of Tel Aviv versus Dahiyeh, and civilian versus civilian. This war, with its timing, expansion, and human and geographical reach, constituted a great moral, military, and security harm within the party's ranks, its surroundings, and its environment, especially since Tel Aviv has deliberately prepared the ground for a war of varying weight, in which the party has no effective tools and weapons, while the attacker suffers "zero losses."

Iran did not sell the party, but rather sold its card now. It may need it again one day, but at least today it has offered it as a sacrifice on the altar of negotiations.

A "new" war by all standards

This war has eliminated the means of communication and ways of communicating between cadres and leaders, amidst the continuous assassinations of party leaders. On the one hand, it is difficult to remain silent about the damage, calamities and woes that have occurred, and on the other hand, being lured into a violent response leads to where Tel Aviv wants.

This difficult situation, coupled with the ongoing difficulties in the Red Sea, the port of Hodeidah and Jurf al-Sakhar in the Iraqi province of Babylon, the assassinations in the southern suburbs of Beirut and in the heart of Tehran, the questions that accompanied the downing of Raisi’s plane, and the technological electronic enemy “attached to the bodies of the fighters” caused… led Ali Khamenei to elect Masoud Pezeshkian as president of his regime, and will lead him further to adopt a policy of “tactical retreat”.

Iran did not sell the party, but rather sold its card now. It may need it again one day, but at least today it has offered it as a sacrifice on the altar of negotiations. This is no secret to anyone. The statements of Iranian leaders have not yet been erased from the newsreels. The party remains alone. There is no salvation for it and its environment except by waking up and returning to their Lebanese identity, away from Tehran and its interests. They have nothing left but Lebanon and the Lebanese people, who are healing their wounds today and opening their regions and arms to them, despite all the accumulated differences and disagreements.

Source: Assas Media