Niv Yavin Abu Rahmoun: Hezbollah's strategy is taking an upward path in the circle of targeting in terms of type and significance

Dr. Rafat Sayed Ahmed: Israel began expanding the scope of the confrontation with assassinations in exchange for strategic patience from Hezbollah

Aziz Al-Assa: I rule out that the region will slide into a comprehensive war because that is not in the interest of any of the major players

Tarek Wahbi: Netanyahu's cancellation of his trip to New York reflects the extent of the anxiety Israel is experiencing after the Tel Aviv missile

Dr. Muhammad Halsa: Netanyahu seeks a quick resolution, and Hezbollah wants to lure Israel into a long war of attrition

Dr. Muhammad Khalifa Siddiq: The arrival of the “Qader 2” missiles to Tel Aviv is a turning point in the ongoing war and the region is on the brink of a volcano

The confrontation between Hezbollah, which took the initiative on October 8, 2023 to open a support front for Gaza, and Israel, which has outdone itself in committing crimes against humanity, has gone through developments and turns, the most dangerous of which was when the occupying state carried out two mass assassination operations by blowing up pagers and wireless devices the next day, followed by an airstrike that targeted a large group of Hezbollah military leaders and a large number of innocent civilians.

This escalation by the occupation was responded to by Hezbollah with a large wave of missiles on the Galilee region, reaching the cities of Haifa, Safed, Afula and the military and technological factories, weapons and fuel depots, and vital centers between them. Israel responded to this, last Monday morning, with unprecedented air strikes that targeted all regions of the south and the Bekaa, and even reached the southern suburb of the capital Beirut, causing more than 500 martyrs and more than 1,600 wounded in one day .

The attacks from both sides and the responses to the responses continued on both sides of the border for two days, with Hezbollah relying mainly on Katyusha rockets and Fadi 1, 2 and 3 missiles. However, the most prominent event in this latest escalation was Hezbollah targeting the headquarters of the Israeli foreign intelligence agency Mossad in Tel Aviv yesterday, Wednesday, with a Qader ballistic missile carrying an explosive warhead of more than 700 kilograms, which also caused hundreds of thousands of Israelis to enter shelters.

Tel Aviv in Hezbollah's circle of targets

Political analyst Nevin Abu Rahmon told "Ya": Hezbollah has expanded its targeting circle to include the greater Tel Aviv area, in an important escalation step that is occurring for the first time in the course of the confrontation.

She pointed out that some Israeli journalists are talking about the nature of the target, which may be “Gush Dan,” and if that is indeed the case, then this is a great indication, firstly, of the nature of the target and its vitality, and secondly, that Hezbollah’s threats have become real in targeting this geographical area in which “three-quarters of Israel” are gathered.

Abu Rahmon explained that “Gush Dan” was mentioned for the first time in a speech by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah without naming it, when he responded in 2010 to the threat of the “Dahiyeh Doctrine” by threatening to target “Tel Aviv,” explaining that “hitting Tel Aviv” does not mean “blowing up walls,” but rather displacing its settlers, noting that the Gush Dan area is “a very large Israeli population center in a strip that also includes oil refineries, major factories, government institutions, and everything.”

Abu Rahmoun saw that Hezbollah's military strategy is taking an upward path in the circle of targets in terms of type and significance in the balance of power that reflects capabilities, but it also reflects a combat doctrine that it employs towards goals that strike the stronghold of Israeli economic, structural, military and intelligence power.

The United States is not interested in all-out war.

Abu Rahmon expressed her belief that Netanyahu is still unable to launch a comprehensive war for several reasons, the most important of which are: First, the United States’ unwillingness to expand the scope of the war due to the sensitivity of the stage on the domestic and public levels.

She added: Secondly, Netanyahu is actually escaping his responsibility to recover the Israeli prisoners and going to escalate against Lebanon in search of political gains that serve his political project through which he is trying to export to the Israeli public that he is able to return the settlers to their homes on the northern border, stressing that Netanyahu is seeking to resolve this after the aggression as well in Israel's constant quest to restore its settlement role in the region.

The region may be on the verge of open war.

For his part, the strategic expert and Egyptian nationalist thinker, Dr. Rifat Sayed Ahmed, told “Y”: The region may be heading towards an open war in the north, although Hezbollah is trying to make it limited, by placing Beirut opposite Tel Aviv.

He pointed out that the Israeli occupation, led by the far-right government and Netanyahu's mentality, believes that the use of force is the only way to force the resistance to surrender.

Ahmed added: After the missile fell on Tel Aviv, the next stage may witness serious repercussions, including the possibility of opening fronts across the country, especially at the airport level, as we may hear about targeting Beirut Airport opposite Tel Aviv Airport, which will open the door to an open war.

A war confined to missiles and air strikes

He explained that open war may be limited to missiles and air strikes, as Israel does not want to wage a comprehensive ground war, but rather prefers limited ground operations.

However, it was the Israeli occupation that began to expand the scope of the confrontation through its assassinations in Beirut, in exchange for strategic patience from Hezbollah.

Ahmed expected that the region would soon face an open war, despite the warnings raised by analysts based on previous experiences, such as the 2006 war. However, he pointed out that the control of the Israeli right and Netanyahu may push the situation towards a major military escalation in the coming period.

Israel is in a dark dark

The writer and political analyst Aziz Al-Assa believes that the two events of the missiles reaching Tel Aviv, after they had reached Haifa, in addition to Netanyahu’s forced relinquishment of using the UN platform to broadcast his claims and delusions to the world, in justifying the killing of children in the Gaza Strip, and the destruction of buildings over the heads of their inhabitants in Lebanon, and considering it an achievement that Israel cannot win without, indicate that Israel is going through a pitch-black darkness.

Al-Assa considered that Netanyahu and the pillars of his far-right government had led Israel into a stagnant muddy quagmire; the more they tried to get out of it, the deeper they sank.

Al-Assa added: If this government continues to manage events with the same mentality and the same tools, it will push itself first, and the region second, into a deep abyss from which Israel will not emerge unscathed, and it will not return to where it was a year ago.

Al-Assa expressed his belief that the Americans are aware of the Israeli government’s madness, its imbalance, its inability to make the right decision, and its deviation from the ethics of war, and they often show their concern for the future of Israel and the future of the entire region.

Regarding the possibility of a comprehensive war, Al-Assa said, "Neither America nor Iran are concerned with it, and they categorically reject it. Therefore, it is not expected that the region will slide into a comprehensive war, because that is not in the interest of any of the major players in the region."

An important strategic shift in the confrontation with Israel

In turn, Lebanese expert in international relations, Tariq Wahbi, confirmed that the recent development in the type of missiles used by Hezbollah, which may be supersonic cruise missiles, constitutes an important strategic shift in the confrontation with Israel.

Wahbi explained that these missiles may not be intercepted by the Israeli Iron Dome, which has raised great concern in Israeli circles.

He pointed out that the Israeli state of alert, which reached its peak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cancelling his trip to New York, reflects the extent of this concern.

"The Israelis are raising questions about the lack of missile density similar to that which they witnessed in the 2006 war, which indicates that Hezbollah is focusing its strikes on specific targets," Wahbi added.

He pointed out that this escalation comes at a time when Tel Aviv is on full alert, which shows the extent of the Israeli leadership's concerns about the development of the type of weapons used.

Saudi initiative at the United Nations

Wahbi pointed out that Netanyahu's last speech was directed to the entire world, accusing everyone of supporting terrorism if they do not support Israel, a speech that was not accepted by many countries, including Arab countries.

He explained that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia seeks to present an initiative at the United Nations that addresses developments in Gaza, and perhaps Lebanon as well, in a session scheduled for September 26.

Regarding ground intervention, Wahbi ruled out that Israel would launch a large-scale ground operation inside Lebanon, stressing that Israeli forces would continue to target sites they believe contain weapons or equipment belonging to Hezbollah. He also expected the region to witness a new electronic war, as Israel has demonstrated its ability to penetrate Hezbollah’s security.

Wahbi pointed out that diplomatic efforts, led by the United States and France, are currently seeking to reach a ceasefire, while pressuring to implement UN Resolution 1701, which aims to strengthen the presence of international forces and the Lebanese army south of the Litani River, to prevent Hezbollah from approaching the Israeli border.

Different approaches to the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah

For his part, political analyst Dr. Muhammad Halsa explained to “Y” that the recent escalation on the northern front between Israel and Hezbollah reflects a difference in the approaches of the two parties.

He pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's approach relies on a quick decision using firepower, as Israel seeks to avoid a long war of attrition that could negatively affect its home front.

Halsa stressed that Israel is betting on the ability of Israeli society to withstand, which was expressed by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant when he said that the composure of the home front will be a decisive factor in victory.

According to Halasa, Hezbollah’s approach is based on luring Israel into a long war of attrition, while adopting measured responses that are far from emotion and the desire for revenge. Hezbollah focuses on preventing Israel from achieving its goals, relying on a strategy that avoids breaking the traditional rules of engagement with Israel, even as it uses new weapons and deepens the scope of the confrontation.

Hezbollah is economical in using its military arsenal

Halsa pointed out that Hezbollah seeks to prolong the period of attrition as much as possible, and to sustain the momentum of attrition by preserving its military arsenal in anticipation of any long or comprehensive confrontation.

He added: In return, Israel seeks to push Hezbollah to use the maximum of its military arsenal as soon as possible, with the aim of depriving it of any strategic weapons that it might use later in an open confrontation.

This escalation, according to Halsa, could lead to a comprehensive Israeli response targeting all of Lebanon, which would create a new crisis for Hezbollah internally, especially with the escalation of criticism from its Lebanese political opponents who believe that Hezbollah is dragging Lebanon into a war in which it has no interest.

Halsa pointed out that Netanyahu's meeting with Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi without the presence of Defense Minister Galant indicates that any strategic decisions are postponed until after Netanyahu returns from his participation in the 79th session of the United Nations.

Tens of thousands displaced on both sides

In turn, Dr. Mohamed Khalifa Siddiq, Professor of Political Science at the International University of Africa in Khartoum, said that the arrival of the Qader 2 missiles to Tel Aviv indicates the possibility of this war turning into a wider war.

He pointed out that the almost daily rocket attacks carried out by Hezbollah on northern Israel, and the Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah sites, have led to the displacement of tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border, which portends a dangerous escalation that may resemble the previous events in Gaza.

"The bets on the possibility of avoiding a full escalation between Israel and Hezbollah are a thing of the past, as the region now seems to be on the edge of a volcano," Khalifa added.

He also pointed out that the recent operation, which targeted thousands of Hezbollah members by blowing up pagers and wireless communication devices, has changed calculations and confused analyses about what the region will look like in the post-blast period.