The British medical journal The Lancet published an article on July 5 estimating that the actual number ofdeaths in the US-backed Israeli aggression in Gaza could reach more than 186,000 people, even if a ceasefire were to take place today.

The article, written by a group of experts, takes into account indirect deaths that have already occurred and will continue to occur to form its estimate.

“Armed conflicts have indirect health impacts that go beyond the direct harm caused by violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, many indirect deaths will continue to occur in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive diseases and infectious and non-communicable diseases,” the article states.

Experts indicated that the number of indirect deaths is expected to be large due to the destruction of the health sector in Gaza and the severe shortage of food and other basic needs. They said that indirect deaths in recent conflicts range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths.

“Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths for every direct death to the 37,396 reported deaths, it is not unreasonable to estimate that as many as 186,000 or even more deaths can be attributed to the current conflict in Gaza,” the article said.

The direct deaths of 37,396 are based on figures announced by the Gaza Ministry of Health on June 19. The ministry said on Monday that the death toll had reached 38,193. This number is considered a low estimate because it does not include thousands of bodies trapped under the rubble, which the Lancet article says could be more than 10,000.

The estimated 186,000 deaths represent 7.9% of Gaza's population, or about 1 in 12 Palestinians living in the Strip.