Netanyahu realizes the impotence of his army... Features of the third phase of the war

Recently, there have been many discussions in Israeli circles that amount to disagreement, media exchanges, and mutual accusations between members of the government on the one hand and the army and security services on the other hand regarding the nature of the military and political relationship with the Gaza Strip. Some are calling for the occupation of the Gaza Strip, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir, at a time when the army sees the necessity of stopping the war and concluding an agreement with the Hamas movement, because the military operation has exhausted its objectives, and the army can no longer remain, fighting between cities with repeated tactics. And exposed.

Those discussions, in the ninth month of the ongoing aggression on Gaza, implicitly carried an acknowledgment of the failure to achieve the “absolute victory” that Benjamin Netanyahu wanted, as well as the failure to achieve any of the goals he announced, which were to eliminate the Hamas movement militarily and authoritarianly, and to release the captured soldiers and officers by force. Armed forces, and the return of settlers to the Gaza Strip.

The army's assessment that the battle was over, and the political leadership's arrogance and refusal to stop the war for political purposes related to the leaders of the extreme right and their interests, were an important reason for the expansion of the space of disagreement and media bickering, especially with the failure to achieve the goals and the erosion of the deterrence that the State of Israel has lived under since its inception.

Features of the third stage 
In light of the Israeli differences, it was noteworthy that Benjamin Netanyahu spoke about Israel making progress to end the phase of destroying the Hamas army, and that Israel will have to target the remnants of the movement in the future, noting that the army will begin the third phase of fighting after the end of the military operation in Rafah in the coming weeks. .

Which means that Netanyahu has become aware of his army’s inability to achieve absolute victory in the Gaza Strip, and he must take steps back in accordance with the tactics of the army, which is pushing towards the so-called third phase, the features of which are as follows:

1- Redeployment of the Israeli occupation army: positioning within the borders of the Gaza Strip with Palestine occupied in 1948, in addition to positioning on the Philadelphia/Salah al-Din axis with Egypt, and the “Netzarim” axis south of Gaza City, which separates the north of the Strip from the center and south.

This comes to avoid staying inside the cities, which have become a continuous drain on the occupation army, both financially and humanly. As a result of the traps prepared by the resistance inside buildings, on the roads and under the ground, which constituted a nightmare that prompted about 900 officers from the middle levels in the occupation army to submit their resignations in an exceptional case throughout the history of the entity, as the average rate of officer resignations annually ranges between 100 and 120 officers.

2- Local military security operations: carrying out limited attacks against specific targets in the Gaza Strip through aviation or artillery, or military battalions entering some areas for hours or days and then withdrawing; With the aim of weakening the resistance and exhausting it according to the policy of mowing the grass, in imitation of what is happening in the West Bank.

3- Exploiting the humanitarian disaster: An attempt to co-opt some people or families to become the nucleus of local regional authorities under the supervision and protection of the occupation, through the distribution of humanitarian aid, the entry of which is controlled by the occupation through its control over all crossings, especially after the destruction of the Rafah crossing with Egypt.

The occupation aims to establish an alternative local authority to Hamas, which would manage the civil affairs of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, supported by regional and international powers, under the supervision and control of the military occupation authorities, in a formula similar to what is happening in the West Bank, to achieve the vision of the extreme right to isolate the West Bank from the Gaza Strip and control it. On them.

The intensity of the bombing and the deployment of the army will decrease: The bombing and the spread of the occupation army within the Strip will decrease geographically, which will reduce the severity of the humanitarian crisis. This will reduce the number of martyrs, wounded, and repeated displacement of civilians, and will help the civilian and police committees regain the initiative. To restore what is possible of government administration to serve citizens according to the available capabilities.

Reorganizing the ranks of the resistance: The resistance will be able to reorganize its ranks and tactics to continue exhausting the occupation army and focusing its strikes on its locations. As is currently happening in the “Netzarim” axis, which separates the north of the Gaza Strip from its south, which will keep the occupation army and its soldiers under psychological pressure and turmoil, in addition to material and human losses.

Disagreements between the army and the Israeli government: The continuation of the war of attrition will increase the dispute between the army and the political leadership, as the army is afraid of the idea of military rule in Gaza. Because of the high human and material costs. Defense Minister Yoav Galant previously warned that military rule requires three military divisions, and a financial cost of about $6 billion annually for military administration alone, excluding civil affairs.

The prisoner file: This file will remain suspended after the occupation army failed to release them over the course of more than nine months of fighting, which will arouse the ire of the families, Israeli public opinion, and the political opposition against the government and Netanyahu. This will be one of the most important files that Hamas and the resistance will manage in agitating Israeli public opinion against Netanyahu and the extreme right.

The file of displaced settlers: This file will remain a time bomb in the face of the Israeli government, which will not be able to return 250,000 displaced people to the borders of the Gaza Strip or northern Palestine, which witnessed the complete emptying of about 28 settlements. The continuation of the clashes will increase pressure on the occupation government, which is looking forward to returning them and settling their conditions before the start of the next school year in September.

The third stage as a title of war management 

This stage is an expression of the occupation army’s exhaustion and fatigue and its inability to continue fighting in the cities of the Gaza Strip, after failing to achieve its goals and its continuous attrition, and incurring huge material and human losses, which prompted many army generals to speak publicly or indirectly, as happened in the newspaper The New York Times a few days ago, which quoted 6 Israeli generals, saying that there is a need to stop the fighting and discuss a political deal with Hamas, even if it remains a ruling authority in the Gaza Strip.

The third stage in the Gaza Strip, as one of the titles of the management of the war and aggression against the Strip, is also linked to the course of the ongoing political negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding the ceasefire agreement with American push and President Biden’s need for an agreement to market it electorally.

It is also related to each party’s vision for managing the Gaza Strip in the future, as the features of the American vision differ from the vision of Netanyahu and the extreme right. At a time when the Hamas movement clings to a national Palestinian administration for the Gaza Strip, in light of the legendary steadfastness of the Palestinian people and the performance of the resistance, on the basis that whoever charts the future is the one who has the upper hand in the field.