Indicative of the increasing indicators of complexity of Israel's situation militarily and internationaly

Last week brought more indications of what most analysts in Israel describe as the increasing complexity of Israel's situation, both at the military level and in the international arena.

Among the indicators related to the international arena, we must stop at two of them:

The first: The decision issued by the International Court of Justice in The Hague, on May 24, which stipulated that Israel must immediately stop its military attack, and that any other action in the Rafah Governorate may inflict on the Palestinian group in the Gaza Strip conditions that could lead to its physical destruction. totally or partially. It seems that the wording used in the resolution allows, even for Israel, to interpret it as allowing it to carry out the military operation in Rafah. Also, according to the interpretation of 4 judges in the court, this order was not direct and comprehensive to stop the Israeli military operation in Rafah, but rather it was limited, ordering Israel not to violate the Convention on the Prevention of the Crime of Genocide in that military operation.

The second indicator: The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, announced on May 20 that he requested the issuance of arrest warrants against the leader of the Hamas movement in Gaza, Yahya Al-Sinwar, the leader of this movement’s military wing, Muhammad Al-Deif, and the head of the movement’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, and against the prime minister. Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu, and Defense Minister Yoav Galant.

According to some analyses, if these two indicators are added to other emerging indicators, it becomes clear beyond any doubt that Israel is in a moment of terrible defeat and deterioration to an unprecedented low. In particular, we should note the indicators of the recognition of the Palestinian state by a number of Western countries, on the one hand, and on the other hand, the expansion of the academic boycott of Israel in the world and the admission of a number of Israeli researchers that they are now facing great difficulties in publishing their articles in peer-reviewed journals because the referees are not willing to read these papers. As reported by Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper (5/24/2024). Within this same last context, we should point out that the Israeli reactions to the wave of protests against the ongoing Israeli aggressive war on the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023, which are being witnessed by many universities in the world, especially in the United States, unanimously agree that these protests will not It will calm down when the war ends, and it may go beyond the borders of American universities and become a broad public discourse in the United States. It has also spread to European universities and to other Western countries. Above all, it would become one of the essential features in crystallizing the aspirations of current university students who, in some way, constitute the next generation of leaders in the United States and in Western countries.

When observing how the outcome of all these indicators was read in Israel, and the latest developments in the war on the Gaza Strip from a military point of view, we must note the following:

First: Most analysts agree that the decision of the Court of Justice in The Hague will not change the course of the war in the Gaza Strip immediately, but at the same time it joins a series of international pressures on Israel to end the fighting. However, at this stage there is no unilateral move by international institutions to stop the war. There are only hopes among some that the UN Security Council will issue sanctions against Israel at a later period.

Second: The ICC Prosecutor’s request to issue arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant demonstrates a lack of confidence in Israel’s claims that it respects the laws of war, and also causes serious harm to its international standing. According to what is confirmed by the Institute for National Security Research at Tel Aviv University (5/21/2024), what is particularly dangerous is “equating Israel’s actions with those of Hamas.”
The Institute notes that the requested arrest warrants at this stage focused on “Israel’s humanitarian policy in the Gaza Strip,” and for this reason they were directed only against the political level. However, the Attorney General indicates that he will continue to investigate allegations related to the widespread bombing of the Gaza Strip, which may also affect the military level. The Institute notes that attention must be paid to the hint that Khan sent to Israel, related to what is known as the “principle of complementarity.” Under this principle, the International Criminal Court has the right to conduct investigations and take proceedings relating to the commission of crimes only when the state concerned does not do so itself. Khan stresses that his office will continue to examine adherence to the “principle of completion” in relation to crimes and other investigations, only if there are thorough investigations and professional legal procedures related to the actions and policies on which the request is based. At this point in particular, there is a hint of a lack of confidence in the judicial system in Israel.

Third: Whether the International Criminal Court rejects the request to issue arrest warrants, or accepts it, a number of military analysts in Israel, led by Ron Ben Yishai, from Yedioth Ahronoth, confirm that the Israeli army must consider the request itself a rolling snowball. In his opinion, “If the three judges in this international court decide to accept the Public Prosecutor’s request, this could have implications in the form of arrest warrants against officials in the army, and after that against officers and fighters in the field who will be accused of committing war crimes” (5/20/2024) .

Fourth: With Norway, Ireland, Spain, and Slovenia declaring their recognition of the Palestinian state, this slow path began to “turn into a tsunami,” as confirmed by a position paper issued by the “Matafim (Paths) Institute for Regional Foreign Policy” (“Maariv,” 5/23/ 2024). The Institute also believes that Netanyahu's refusal to announce his readiness, in the future, to "accept the establishment of a Palestinian state with international security guarantees" weakens Israel, leads to its isolation, and harms it, and the consequences will be devastating for Israel.

Fifth: The development of the latest events clearly indicates the deterioration of Netanyahu’s standing in the world. This man, who has always “claimed to be a great statesman, has become unable to achieve the strategic goals he set for the war, and he is also implicating Israel in problems that will haunt the state and its citizens for many years.” As confirmed by the military analyst for Haaretz newspaper, Amos Harel (May 22, 2024).

Political analyst Nadav Eyal (“Yedioth Ahronoth”, 5/24/2024) brought to mind that in 2019 a book was published entitled “How Netanyahu turned Israel into an empire” and distanced it from international isolation despite the conflict with the Palestinians, the occupation in the 1967 territories, and the recognition of Israel. The growing Palestinian state.
It was pointed out in the book that the political goal set by Netanyahu upon his return to prime ministership in 2009 was to transform Israel into a great and influential regional power. “It is a goal that could not be achieved except by exploiting the qualitative components and strengths of Israeli society, then transforming them into privileges that push towards achieving the political goal. This strategy by Netanyahu was based on two pillars: a strong and stable economy, and military and security strength.” Where is Israel now in this vision?

Sixth: As for Netanyahu himself, the latest developments confirm that he is still committed to continuing the war. Major General Yisrael Ziv, former commander of the “Gaza Division” and the Operations Division (5/25/2024), decided to stress that if Netanyahu chooses, in light of all the circumstances referred to above, to cling to the option of continuing the long war that may include the occupation of parts of From the Gaza Strip, which also means the continuation of the war of attrition against Hezbollah in the north, the growing power of Iran, the collapse of Israel’s position in the world, and the worsening of its economic crisis. This must mean to every Israeli that this government has become a danger to Israel and will undermine the state. He added, "We are at the most crucial moment in which the Chief of General Staff and the Minister of Defense must place before the Prime Minister an immediate and indisputable condition, which is to make a political decision related to the day after the war immediately. Any postponement of such a matter means allowing Netanyahu a period of time." “Israel is heading towards the abyss, and therefore the responsibility for such a possibility is transferred to them as well.”

Seventh: On another level, military developments. Most security affairs analysts and former military leaders agree that the continuation of the war increases its complexity on the one hand, and on the other hand causes the accumulation of more and more dead soldiers, and more disabled soldiers, both physically and psychologically, and that the army has become forced to He is searching, with all his energy, for female and male fighters to fill the void they leave in the ranks of the army, and no one will ever be able to justify the refusal of young Haredi Jews to enlist in the army.

As the military analyst for the right-wing newspaper Makor Rishon, Amir Rabaport, wrote (May 23, 2024): There is a topic that is kept quiet about, or rather, they do not talk about it much, but it is very disturbing to the leadership of the Israeli army, and that is the physical and psychological wear and tear on the Israeli soldiers, especially in the regular army, in addition to Severe shortage of field commanders. The background to this erosion, of course, lies in the continuation of the war. The Israeli army has been built over decades according to a concept that specifies that any war must be as short as possible and take place in enemy territory. But from a practical standpoint, the war on Gaza is also taking place in Israeli territory, and we do not see an end to it even after about eight months have passed since its beginning.