According to the analyst: The Israeli plan to occupy the Gaza Strip, administer it by a multinational force, and establish a security belt, contradicts clear statements by the American administration, and any talk about a political process that returns the Palestinian Authority to Gaza will remove Netanyahu from power.

Israel's plan is for the war on Gaza to continue for many months, over several stages. The Israeli occupation forces, which are penetrating into the northern Gaza Strip, especially Gaza City, are advancing slowly, while a prominent Israeli analyst pointed out that Hamas still controls its resources.

The slogan “Together we will conquer” is raised everywhere in Israel, but the political analyst in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Nahum Barnea, pointed out that “it is important to remind ourselves that this slogan is not a true description of reality, but rather a wish. In fact, we are facing "Difficult decisions and painful ending scenarios. Victory is not expected here, and the word 'together', which honestly describes what is happening in the army and in the field, does not reflect what is happening in the government."

He pointed out that negotiations on the liberation of Israeli prisoners in the Gaza Strip “are progressing slowly. According to all indications, (Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya) Sinwar is still acting as if he controls his resources. He is seeking to release them in stages and in small groups, and to obtain in return, an addition "to (Palestinian) prisoners, longer ceasefire periods. He also controls the narrative and propaganda."

Barnea added, "The longer the ceasefire periods become, the more difficult it will be for the Israeli army to maintain progress in the ground incursion. American pressure will intensify. The war will continue, but this will be a different war, more limited, and based primarily on regular force units."

He added that Defense Minister Yoav Galant is "convinced that it is possible to repel the pressure and resume the ground invasion if there is also a ceasefire." Barnea reported that “the Israeli army’s operations in the Gaza Strip are conducted according to a regular plan approved by the political-security cabinet,” and that “the military operation is based on a plan prepared by Galant and reserve brigadier general Chico Tamir during the military operation Cast Lead” in the Gaza Strip, at the end of 2008 and the beginning of the year. 2009, when Galant was commander of the southern region in the Israeli army.

According to Barnea, “The current phase of the war will last three months; the next phase will continue for another nine months. During this period, efforts will be made to form a multinational force to temporarily assume governance in the Gaza Strip. The former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, was recruited, In order to form this force, the American General Carter joined him. Local Palestinians are supposed to manage the civil side. A tent city will be established for Palestinians displaced from their homes in the area where the Gush Katif settlement bloc was located in the past. Members of the cabinet say that this will not be for a while. "It won't be easy."

This is a brief description of the Israeli plan. But according to Barnea, “it is not certain that this is what will happen. Israel and Hamas are not the only players in this drama. The Israeli government’s plan to create a security belt around the entire Gaza Strip, in which Israeli forces are present, contradicts clear statements by the Biden administration, which talks about Palestinian sovereignty in the entire Gaza Strip, and about the Palestinian Authority restoring control in Gaza.”

Barnea considered that “Netanyahu’s willingness to move to power would have allowed Biden to fend off criticism from the left wing of his party and from Arab rulers. Netanyahu cannot help Biden. He cannot even lie about this issue. Any talk about a political process would make Ben Gvir and Smotrich rise from their beds, and Netanyahu will lose his seat.”

Barnea, like other Israeli analysts, expected that “the confrontation with Hezbollah would be complex,” and pointed out that “last October 11, Gallant proposed launching a major military operation in Lebanon, with the support of the Israeli army. This proposal was rejected due to the opposition of Gantz and Eisenkot.” Since then, rumors have been circulating about Gallant’s intention to launch a large-scale war in the north. These rumors are also based on Gallant’s warlike rhetoric in his statements.”

Barnea also reported that the government's judicial advisor, Gali Beharav Meara, instructed Netanyahu's advisors yesterday to stop collecting documents about secret deliberations, past and present, in preparation for facing an investigation committee at the end of the war. Whoever collects documents can also shred them. The head of the National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, was referred to as the first accused.

Arab48