The truce in the war on Gaza may take place due to American pressure on Israel, and in parallel with attempts to reach a prisoner exchange deal. In the Israeli army, they wonder about “the extent of Hamas’ desire to fight now.”

Israeli analysts indicated today, Wednesday, that the war on Gaza, in its current form, may end in the coming days, due to pressure exerted by the American administration regarding a truce and attempts to reach a prisoner exchange deal, but they considered that the war may resume in a different form, and through local Israeli incursions of the Gaza Strip and assassinations of leaders in the Hamas movement and other factions.

According to Nahum Barnea, a political analyst in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, “The coming days may be the final, decisive stage in the two efforts: the war against Hamas and the American-Qatari attempt to reach a kidnapping deal. After this period, there is doubt as to whether Israel will be able to withstand.” In the face of American pressure regarding a ceasefire, especially if a kidnapped deal is on the table, the clock is ticking.”

Barnea pointed out that “past experiences in Gaza, as well as in Lebanon, indicate that there is no high probability of resuming the ground invasion after a ceasefire agreement. Students (in Israel) will return to schools, residents will return to work, the reconstruction of towns will begin, and the world expects another agenda.” "And the reserve soldiers want to return to their homes, families and jobs. The Israeli army will remain in Gaza and continue to work, but not with the current size of the forces."

He added, "It is important to maintain realistic expectations. It is not certain that the Israeli army will be able to reach (Hamas leader in Gaza) Yahya Sinwar and his colleagues in the current round. Even if they are liquidated, Hamas will not disappear. It is important to remember that we are not alone in this drama, and we need the American administration and are obligated to listen to it.”

According to Barnea, “The votes that Biden is losing in America exacerbate his need for an imminent ceasefire in Gaza. We must realize that Gaza is only one section in the devastation that befell Israel on October 7. The Israeli government is now looking forward to a settlement in a diplomatic way to remove the power of Al-Radwan (in Hezbollah) on the border in the north. Without that, there is doubt whether the residents will return to their towns in the north. We have not yet reached the question of what Hamas will demand in exchange for the return of some of the kidnapped people.

He pointed out, "When Netanyahu and others talk about an ongoing war, they seem to mean not the war that took place in the last month, but rather a war of a different kind: assassinations, local raids, and continuous security operations."

Barnea pointed out, “As long as they talk about continuing the war, Netanyahu can put pressure on him to bear responsibility (for the security and intelligence failure on October 7) along with the government. At the end of the first month of the war, no one in Israel will be able to celebrate a victory. And sometimes the victory is by realizing that there is no victory.”

Military analyst in the newspaper "Haaretz", Amos Harel, also pointed out that "the duration of the war, with the current size of the forces, is not unlimited. The United States, which supports the Israeli operation to defeat Hamas, is in parallel exerting pressure to implement longer humanitarian truces and hints at “In the not-too-distant term, there will be a need to research changing the nature of war.”

He added, "The leadership of the southern region (of the Israeli army) wants many months to complete the military operation, targeting Hamas in the northern Gaza Strip in particular, and carrying out a radical survey in these areas with the aim of targeting terrorists and all weapons."

Harel continued, "The American administration is talking with Israel about the suitability of the form of war later: withdrawing most of the forces from the Gaza Strip and moving to the method of local incursions against Hamas systems, in the northern Gaza Strip and perhaps in other areas as well."

Harel pointed out, "It is not yet clear what reality the Israeli army intends to establish after the war. The belief is that it is possible to dismantle Hamas' military and organizational strength, and not completely eliminate it, because an idea or ideology cannot be destroyed."

He added, "A more complex picture emerges from conversations with Israeli officers who are leading the war in the Gaza Strip and the levels above them. They are satisfied, and even positively surprised, by the level of professionalism of the ground forces, in the second week of the ground invasion in Gaza. But there is still the question about the extent of Hamas' desire to fight now."

Harel continued: “The fact that Hamas refuses at this stage any real negotiations about the broad liberation of the kidnapped people would also indicate that its leadership does not currently see its situation as very dangerous. In the last two days, a decline in the amount of rocket shells launched into the center of the country has become apparent.”

There appears to be a combination of two reasons here: the difficulty Hamas faces by launching from the northern Gaza Strip following the Israeli army attack, and a desire to preserve a sufficient number of medium-range rockets for the next stages of the war.