Putin and his new old war in Ukraine

We do not know the exact motives of Russian President Putin's strategy in February 2022, when he decided to invade Ukraine, his neighbor and former ally of the Soviet Union.

The attack and invasion was swift and surprising in light of international relations in which the regional conflicts led by the United States began to subside. Before that, he intervened in Chechnya and supported a military coup there, in which Ramzan Kadyrov ascended. He also intervened in Georgia and was able to install a somewhat supportive regime. He also intervened in Kazakhstan and supported his supporters who tried to overthrow Nazarbayev's successors.

As for Ukraine, it was a different strategic issue for him, as it threatened his vision of the issue of Russian national security, especially after the rise of President Zelensky, who started dialogues and rapprochement with the Europeans and the United States to enter NATO and he did not care, and the Ukrainian leaders paid attention to Putin's concerns and continued these talks in order for Ukraine to be A member of the European Union and NATO as well, Putin did not like that, who felt that his foreign policy and Russia's national and strategic national interests had been put into a corner and at stake with the new leaders in Ukraine.

And we must not forget that Putin occupied the Crimea peninsula belonging to Ukraine and annexed it to Russia in 2014, and he was also calling for the annexation of the eastern regions bordering Russia, to him, and on the twenty-fourth of February 2022, i.e. 14 months ago, Putin reached a strategic decision stating that he must invade and occupy Ukraine , under the pretext of preventing it from joining NATO, as this constitutes a security and strategic threat to the Russian Federation, in addition to the fact that the nuclear weapons that NATO possesses will be part of the Ukrainian armament system in cooperation with the United States and the Europeans, and we do not know the exact reasons for his decision that he reached, but he felt confident Rhetoric led to a decisive decision to occupy Ukraine and subjugate its political system in Kiev.

Many analysts and observers agree that he wanted to occupy all Ukrainian lands, occupy the capital Kiev through the southern cities and encircle it, and change the system of government to be subordinate to him.
Despite the influx of thousands of tanks, military aircraft and hundreds of thousands of soldiers, he was not able at first sight to reach Kiev, but rather get close to it, as that cost him heavy losses, especially from tanks that proved ineffective and ineffective in this war because the Ukrainians showed determination and courage. They were strong in the face of the Russian intervention, and they inflicted thousands of casualties on the Russian army, and they were able to destroy the materiel and equipment, especially the tanks, which proved ineffective, and although he approached Kiev, he was unable to occupy it, and his decision was not to wait and withdraw quickly, and he began to change his strategy by destroying the infrastructure, the factories. And the official institutions and army camps, and then the decision to withdraw tactically and what was later called redeployment and contentment with the annexation of areas on the eastern borders, the most important of which are the cities of Luhansk, the Donbass region, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson.

It can be said that it has become certain that despite the heavy losses incurred by the Ukrainians, which amounted to tens of thousands of dead and millions of displaced people to Europe, as their number reached 13 million out of 41 million Ukrainians, the majority of whom are women and children.

The Ukrainian government allowed Ukrainians to leave and emigrate from the country in order to avoid the danger of war and death, but it prevented men between the ages of 18 and 55 from leaving, and even forced them to participate in the war effort against Russia.

These analysts add that Putin committed another strategic war mistake when he decided to occupy Ukraine from the south and not from the northeast, as he would control the Black Sea and Ukraine's outlet to the borders with Europe, i.e. Poland and Moldova.

He also did not learn from the mistakes of the American occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan, because the deployment of conventional military forces such as tanks, armored vehicles and armored vehicles in densely populated residential areas has become a dangerous matter and it is difficult to achieve any strategic objectives of the occupying country, and this is what the United States learned twenty years after its invasion of Afghanistan. And six years after its invasion of Iraq, and what we also see on the Palestinian scene, as Israel began to understand that its control over the areas as well as the population has become difficult to achieve.

It withdrew from Gaza unilaterally in 2003 and it is still trying desperately to control the West Bank, with armored military forces inside crowded areas in the West Bank. It can be said that the tanks have completely lost their effectiveness in this war, although Israel has 3000 tanks, but It was unable to resolve the battle with Hezbollah in the summer of 2006 and did not advance with tanks to Maroun al-Ras, 10 kilometers from the Lebanese-Israeli border, as the battle at that time was called a massacre of Israeli tanks that were destroyed by dozens and prevented from advancing into Lebanon.

Putin did not sink much in the Ukrainian mud, as he quickly concluded the military results, and after strong and fierce opposition to the Ukrainians, who began to quickly organize themselves, in terms of receiving rapid military and economic aid from the United States with European support.

That aid reached more than $45 billion in late August 2022, and it is expected to increase by many billions more. It can be said that Putin began to be affected more by the political and economic sanctions against him until he reached the conclusion that withdrawal from central Ukraine is the best way. To maintain his prestige, especially after the heavy losses incurred by the Russian army.

The Ukrainian government, in a country completely destroyed in terms of infrastructure, was able to gather forces and volunteers from the parts of the Ukrainian army, and they formed the nucleus of resistance to the Russian army.

Whatever it was, we do not know the exact reasons for the Russian withdrawal, which was affected by the Ukrainian resistance, especially in Mario Ball, Zakharova and Bokhmut. Putin's decision was decisive to withdraw to the eastern regions of Ukraine bordering Russia, where citizens of Russian origin live, and to annex them with their residents to Russia, leaving the borders The Polish-Ukrainian state is open to the state of Ukraine, and it continues to receive military and economic support from many countries that support it. In the midst of these days, many observers are waiting for the sudden spring attack of the Ukrainian forces on the Russian forces, and it is difficult to predict that this spring campaign will succeed and achieve any gains. The Ukrainians They don't want any negotiations with Putin and the Chinese government is trying to mediate that.

As for Putin, he is playing on time and does not move much in this regard except to launch severe military strikes targeting the infrastructure, to convince Zelensky's government that there is no way out but negotiations and acquiescence to Putin's demands.

As for the United States and the Biden administration, it is concerned with the continuation of the war, as it is tightening its grip on the Europeans, who fear the spread of the Russian bear, and the Ukrainians, who do not have the many means to get out of this occupation crisis.