Tel Village Incident... Increases Resentment Against Occupation and Reduces Netanyahu's Chances of Winning

Every Monday, the Tel Village incident in Nablus Governorate, which occurred on Friday, marked a bloody turning point in the West Bank, resulting in the martyrdom of four Palestinians and the killing of two Israelis. The events began with an attack by settlers on the town, escalating into violent confrontations, then a widespread military campaign and arrests, increasing the growing Palestinian resentment in the West Bank and directly impacting the accelerating security deterioration in the West Bank, clearly reflected in the Israeli political scene on the eve of the general elections. According to documented Palestinian sources with videos, the events began with an attack by about 30 armed settlers on the homes of Tel village residents who were preparing for Friday prayers, prompting the residents to defend themselves and their property. This was accompanied by intense gunfire from the attacking settlers and the army forces that arrived at the scene to protect the attackers, leading to the martyrdom of 4 Palestinians from one family, while two settlers, one of whom was a soldier, were killed after a Palestinian youth managed to snatch a weapon from one of the settlers. Immediately after the incident, the Israeli army imposed a strict siege on Tel town, Nablus city, and the rest of the West Bank governorates, and carried out a widespread arrest campaign targeting about 80 Palestinians, in addition to converting some homes into field interrogation centers. Soldiers also stormed Nablus Specialty Hospital and arrested two brothers from the family of the martyr Farouk Ramadan, one of whom was injured. This escalation was not limited to Tel but extended to include escalating attacks by settlers in the villages of Surra, Aqraba, Jit, and other villages in Qalqilya, Ramallah, Hebron, and Bethlehem, where homes and properties were set on fire, resulting in additional injuries. UN reports have documented that this pattern of violence is not isolated, with an average of six settler attacks per day in 2026. Figures issued by the Central Command of the occupation indicate a significant increase in settler attacks, as 2025 witnessed a sharp rise in the number of serious attacks, which the Central Command report described as Jewish terrorism, with about 128 attacks compared to 83 attacks in 2024 and 54 attacks in 2023, an increase of over 50%. The Tel incident reflects a continuation of a broader wave of escalation, as data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs indicates that settler violence recorded the highest daily rate since documentation began in 2006. In May 2026 alone, settlers carried out more than 50 attacks resulting in casualties or property damage. This escalation comes in an aggressive Israeli political context that aims, according to analysts, to "control the West Bank and entrench the settlement presence" and resolve the conflict in the West Bank after the task of resolution was entrusted to the settlers with the army's help. Immediately after the incident, orders were issued by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to carry out a "wide-ranging operation" in Palestinian villages he described as "terrorist hotbeds," in addition to confiscating weapons, revoking work permits, and a broader step of legalizing new settlement outposts. This path threatens to ignite a new and open front in the West Bank, at a time when Israeli security sources warned that "the recent series of events could ignite the region and lead to a comprehensive explosion." The Tel incident comes on the eve of the Knesset elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, making its political repercussions pivotal. A poll conducted by "Maariv" newspaper immediately after the incident revealed a decline in Netanyahu's Likud party to 20 seats, a decrease of two seats, its largest decline since June 2025. This decline reflects several factors: · Security and Strategic Failure: The opposition exploited the incident to direct sharp criticism at the government, accusing it of turning the West Bank into a "powder keg" by supporting extremist settlers, as highlighted in statements by "Democrats" party leader Yair Golan, and statements by former Defense Minister and Chief of Staff Bogie Ya'alon. · Impact on the Coalition Base: The same poll showed that extremist right-wing parties in the coalition, such as "Otzma Yehudit" (led by Ben Gvir) and "Religious Zionism" (led by Smotrich), could see their seats rise to 8 and 5 respectively. This trend indicates that the incident may boost the popularity of hardline parties at the expense of Likud itself, as voters see these parties as more representative of the harsh response they demanded, such as Ben Gvir's call to destroy "terrorist" homes and displace villages, and Smotrich's call to establish a new settlement at the site of the incident. The poll also showed that the opposition bloc maintains its majority with 61 seats compared to 49 for the coalition. Furthermore, Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eizenkot are ahead of Netanyahu in the prime ministerial race. This reflects a deeper crisis of confidence that is not related to a single incident, but to an accumulation of political and security failures, as 60% of Israelis believe there is a "real danger" of civil war, and 49% are pessimistic about the future. The Tel village incident demonstrates how a single security incident can expose the fragility of both the field and political situation. On the one hand, the pace of security deterioration in the West Bank is accelerating, driven by settlement policies and collective punishment that threaten a broader confrontation. On the other hand, the direct electoral repercussions reflect a state of political fragmentation, as the incident may not benefit Likud as much as it strengthens the legitimacy of more extreme parties, putting Netanyahu in confrontation with his right-wing base, without improving his image as the "security master" among the wider Israeli public, as opinion poll results indicate. * Researcher specializing in Palestinian and Israeli national security studies