American Voters.. A Negative View Towards Israel

Recent polls conducted by several national public opinion research institutions, including American voters, have shown a sharp decline in public support for Israel. For example, a Gallup poll last February showed that when participants were asked who they sympathized with most, 41% chose Palestinians, compared to only 36% who chose Israel. This contrasts significantly with the results of the same Gallup poll in 2023, where 54% of participants expressed sympathy for Israel, while 36% expressed sympathy for Palestinians. Then, a few weeks ago, the Pew Research Center published a poll showing that 60% of participants had a negative view of Israel. To better understand these changes in voter opinions, the role of Israel's wars with Lebanon and Palestinians in shaping their perspectives, and how voters want the US government and members of Congress to deal with this issue, the Arab American Institute and the organization "Voters for Justice in Palestine," in North Carolina, commissioned "John Zogby Strategies" to conduct a nationwide poll on these issues. The poll included 1001 potential American voters (with a margin of error of +/- 3.2). It is clear that Israeli behaviors are no longer accepted by the majority of American voters, and have even been rejected by supporters of Israel. For example, 41% of voters believe that Israeli actions against Palestinians are "excessive and amount to genocide," while only 32% disagree. The difference among "Democrats" is much larger. Answers to a question about whether the United States should do more to pressure Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories show similar results. These issues and others related to Israel's behavior receive continuous opposition to Israel's policies, primarily from "Democratic" or independent voters. This opposition is led by sub-categories of young or non-white voters. There is also a deep demographic divide among "Republican" voters, with young "Republicans" (under 45) holding negative views towards Israel's actions that are closer to those of "Democrats" than to those of older "Republicans." In fact, in almost all survey questions, the only real base of support that Israel can rely on is older, white "Republican" voters. This group constitutes a dwindling minority of the overall electorate. The poll results also show that there are electoral consequences associated with these shifts, as the majority of voters believe they would be more inclined to support candidates who call for reducing or ending military aid to Israel (45% versus 27%), or who reject funding or support from sources associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Rejection rates are much higher (more than double) among "Democrats," independents, and non-white voters. The majority of "Democrats," "Republicans," and independents (and all major demographic groups) agree on the need to hold Israel accountable and prosecute it for the killing of American citizens, with 58% of potential voters believing Israel should be held accountable, compared to only 16% who oppose its prosecution. The same applies to Israel's bombing of Lebanon, with potential American voters, by a two-to-one margin, believing that the US administration should do more to pressure Israel to stop the bombing and withdraw from southern Lebanon. By a nearly two-to-one margin, voters express concern that Israel's bombing and occupation of Lebanon harms US interests in the Middle East. In both cases, these percentages apply to all major demographic groups except "Republicans," who are divided on the issue. While voters express clear negative opinions towards Israel's actions and support a US policy that pressures Israel to curb its actions and hold it accountable, the poll also shows that a significant minority (between a quarter and a third of all respondents) honestly admit the need for more information before making decisions on some of the political issues raised. As the midterm elections approach, there are indications that voters' aversion to Israel and its policies is already affecting Congress and the upcoming midterm elections. Last month, 40 out of 47 US senators, who are "Democrats" or allied with them, voted to block certain military supplies to Israel, an unprecedented number of elected officials who have taken such a stance in an election year. This included the majority of Jewish American senators. Dozens of members of Congress have also publicly pledged to reject support from pro-Israel lobbying groups in their re-election campaigns. Although some of these members were previously major recipients of funding from pro-Israel donors. These are important and significant developments, and it is important to note them in the future.