Warnings of a wide escalation in Al-Aqsa during May: Settlement efforts to legitimize incursions on Fridays

Extremist Temple groups are preparing to carry out a series of widespread incursions into the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque during the current month of May, coinciding with three major Jewish holidays. These movements come amid strenuous attempts to impose a new reality that transcends usual restrictions, as these organizations seek to compensate for traditional closure days with intensive incursions preceding or overlapping with Fridays.

This month's settlement agenda includes what is called 'Second Passover', 'Jerusalem Day', and 'Shavuot', occasions during which settlers plan to escalate violations. Concerns are particularly prominent about repeated attempts to slaughter animal sacrifices within the mosque's courtyards, a Talmudic ritual through which extremists seek to consecrate the 'spiritual Temple' before the physical one.

In a remarkable development, the settlement movement has moved to the Knesset, where Likud MK 'Amit Halevi' demanded the opening of Al-Aqsa Mosque to intruders on the Friday that coincides with 'Jerusalem Day'. Halevi, in a letter addressed to National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, considered the closure of the mosque to Jews on this day unacceptable, calling for them to be enabled to perform public Talmudic prayers.

For its part, the extremist organization 'Beyadenu' launched a campaign to collect signatures aimed at legitimizing the mass raising of Israeli flags inside Al-Aqsa Mosque during mid-month celebrations. This petition aims to pressure security and political levels to allow full Israeli sovereign manifestations inside the first Qibla of Muslims, which portends an explosion of the field situation.

Experts in Israeli affairs believe that these demands reflect a desire to abolish what remains of the 'status quo' supervised by the Islamic Endowments. Sources reported that the actual decision-making inside Al-Aqsa is now subject to the assessments of the Israeli police, directly influenced by Ben-Gvir's directives and Temple groups, marginalizing the historical Jordanian role in managing the holy sites.

Researcher Adel Shadid warned that this year's 'Flags March' comes at the peak of profound political and security transformations within Israeli society, where the 'existential threat' is being exploited to promote extremist nationalist ideology. He explained that adherence to Islamic holy sites as Zionist targets has become the primary lever for the current government, making May a real test of sovereignty in Jerusalem.

In a related context, the director of the Jerusalem International Center, Hassan Khater, pointed out that settlers previously succeeded in breaking the rules of incursion during the last ten days of Ramadan. Khater confirmed that the settlement ambition is now directed towards Friday incursions, something that has not happened since 2003, warning that the presence of an extremist figure like Ben-Gvir could facilitate the implementation of this dangerous plan.

Palestinian academic circles consider the insistence on introducing sacrifices, whether live or slaughtered, to represent an advanced stage of the Judaization of Al-Aqsa Mosque. According to academic Abdullah Maarouf, these rituals aim to transform the mosque from a purely Islamic place of worship into a Jewish spiritual center, which requires widespread popular vigilance to confront this challenge.

Reports indicate that Benjamin Netanyahu's government seeks to achieve tangible accomplishments for its right-wing public before any upcoming elections, making the Al-Aqsa file a winning political card in Ben-Gvir's hand. This political impulsiveness ignores repeated security warnings that tampering with Al-Aqsa could lead to the entire region igniting and crossing red lines.

Despite factors that could contribute to containing the escalation, such as security concerns about an explosion of popular anger in Jerusalem, the religious Zionist tendency appears more determined to confront. Israeli security agencies fear that the large numbers of Muslim worshipers on Fridays could lead to bloody clashes if settlers are allowed to infiltrate at the same time.

Internal religious differences in Israel also emerge as a potential restraining factor, as the official rabbinate still prohibits incursions into 'Temple Mount' for religious and Torah reasons. However, the influence of religious nationalist currents now transcends these traditional fatwas, relying on direct political support from ministers in the current government who themselves participate in the incursions.

The success of settlers in smuggling parts of slaughtered sacrifices into the Dome of the Rock courtyard last year represents a dangerous precedent that extremist groups seek to build upon this year. These organizations are working to prepare Israeli public opinion to accept the idea of sacrificing offerings as a natural part of religious practice, amid clear turning a blind eye from law enforcement agencies.

In light of this reality, Jerusalemites find themselves on the front line against attempts at temporal and spatial division that have reached their final stages. Calls are increasing to travel to Al-Aqsa Mosque and intensify vigil there during the announced Jewish holidays, to block the plans of settlement associations that enjoy unprecedented government cover.

In conclusion, the current month of May remains open to all possibilities, as the far-right's desire to impose sovereignty clashes with warnings of a comprehensive security explosion. The international community and the bodies concerned with Hashemite custodianship should act urgently to stop these violations that aim to change the historical and legal identity of the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque.

The tendency to ignite the situation in Al-Aqsa and the region is currently greater for the religious Zionist government than the containment factors.