Between the American and Israeli Scales: Trump Extends Truce, Tehran Refuses Negotiations Under Siege

US President Donald Trump has backed down from his previous threats not to extend the ceasefire, announcing this week an indefinite extension of the truce. This sudden shift came after Washington received a message from the Iranian leadership stating its refusal to send a negotiating delegation to Pakistan, leading to the suspension of Vice President JD Vance's scheduled trip to Islamabad.

The White House attempted to justify this retreat by responding to Pakistani mediation led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir, who requested a delay in any military action against Tehran. Trump pointed to divisions within the Iranian leadership, considering it expected to await a unified stance from Tehran under the current circumstances.

In contrast, Tehran maintains a firm stance of refusing to 'negotiate under threat,' setting preconditions that include lifting the naval blockade and releasing the ship seized by the US military. The Iranian leadership views the continued blockade as military aggression that contradicts the concept of a true truce, which led to the collapse of the second round of negotiations before they even began.

Domestically in the US, Trump is experiencing a tug-of-war between conflicting currents; while 'hawks' push for escalation and subjugation of Iran, 'isolationists' tend to avoid involvement in long wars of attrition. At the same time, those close to Israel are trying to steer American decisions to serve the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

It appears that the US administration has begun to realize that the 'Israeli scale' it has long relied on only leads to endless war. Therefore, Washington has started to prioritize its own calculations, taking into account the global energy crisis, rising fuel prices, and the exorbitant cost of military deployment in West Asia.

The Republican administration also fears the repercussions of resuming military operations on the upcoming midterm elections in the fall. Losing the majority in both the House and Senate represents a political nightmare for Trump, especially given the severe shortage of ammunition that could weaken the US position in potential confrontations with major powers like China.

For its part, Iran shows a willingness to take risks by not offering free concessions, relying on a precise analysis of the current American predicament. Tehran asserts that it has not lost the war to the extent of accepting Washington's dictates, and it insists on linking any de-escalation on regional fronts, including Lebanon, to a negotiating path that achieves its strategic interests.

Tehran offers trade-offs that include opening the Strait of Hormuz for transit fees and accepting a new nuclear agreement that places its program under strict international supervision. However, these concessions are conditional on a comprehensive lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of billions, while maintaining its organic relationship with Hezbollah and refusing to separate from the Lebanese front.

In Tel Aviv, there is deep concern about the American diplomatic approach, as Israel seeks to maintain its superiority as the sole regional power by resuming the war. Netanyahu and his envoy Ron Dermer are moving very cautiously in Washington's corridors to ensure that Israel does not become a 'burden' on vital American interests.

Israel sets impossible conditions for any agreement, including an absolute halt to enrichment, dismantling Iran's missile program, and ending media incitement. Israeli elites believe that the failure of negotiations is better than reaching a 'bad' agreement that does not meet their aspirations to completely undermine Iranian influence.

These developments coincide with the ongoing complex intelligence confrontation between the two sides, with previous reports revealing mutual successes in security breaches. While the Mossad succeeded in accessing sensitive facilities, Iran managed to recruit high-ranking former Israeli officials such as former Energy Minister Gonen Segev.

Ultimately, regional powers realize that the Iranian regime is not just fighting for survival, but seeks to solidify its position as a major regional power. Any bet on Tehran's unconditional surrender seems far from political realism, as the Iranian leadership considers submission to American demands a 'push towards the abyss' rather than a lifeline.

Trump replaces war with the threat of it, hoping to achieve gains through intimidation that he failed to extract through bombing and destruction.