From the Iran War to the Reshaping of the Middle East... Do Palestinians Have the Ability to Seize the Moment?

The war on Iran is not just a military confrontation between two states or axes, but a pivotal event that could reshape the structure of balances in the Middle East, and perhaps also leave its mark on the trajectory of ongoing transformations in the international system. This war, with its intertwining of regional geopolitics and the global struggle for influence, opens the door to multiple scenarios: from the re-establishment of American-Israeli hegemony, to the region sliding into extended chaos, or the emergence of new balances under an international system gradually moving towards greater multipolarity. Israel between the Superiority of Power and the Erosion of Legitimacy. In one of the potential scenarios, Israel may emerge from the war more confident in its ability to impose its military will on the region. Weakening Iran, whether by striking its nuclear capabilities or undermining its military structure, could strengthen Israel's position as the most militarily superior power in the Middle East, and solidify its role as the primary pillar of American strategy in the region. However, this military superiority intersects with negative internal transformations within Israeli society itself. The deep polarization between extremist religious nationalist currents and liberal currents now reflects a struggle over the state's identity and the limits of using force. Consecutive wars in the region, including the genocidal war on the Gaza Strip, have revealed that tactical military achievements may be accompanied by an increasing strategic cost, whether in the form of growing political isolation or the erosion of Israel's standing among broad sectors of global public opinion, including within the United States itself. Thus, Israel may find itself facing a complex paradox: increasing military superiority countered by a decline or even degradation in its standing on the international stage. The Gulf between Security and Strategic Hedging. Gulf states stand at the heart of this complex equation. If the war leads to a decisive weakening of Iran, some of these states may tend to strengthen their ties to the American security umbrella, and perhaps engage to varying degrees in new regional security arrangements that Israel might be a part of. But the region's experience over the past decades has shown that regional imbalances do not necessarily lead to stability, but may open the door to new waves of uncertainty. Therefore, some Gulf states may seek to maintain a wider margin of maneuver, by balancing their relations between Washington and rising international powers, especially China. The United States between Re-establishing Influence and the Risks of Exhaustion. For Washington, the war on Iran represents an attempt to re-establish its leading position in the Middle East after years of relative decline. Success in weakening Iran could provide it with an opportunity to rearrange the region in accordance with its interests and those of its allies. However, historical experience also indicates that military victories, if they occur, do not always translate into political stability. The possibility of the war sliding into a long or multi-front conflict could turn it into a new factor of exhaustion for American influence, rather than an entry point for restoring hegemony. China and the Transforming International System. In contrast, China views the Middle East from a different angle. It is not concerned with direct military involvement in the region's conflicts, but sees it as a vital space for its economic interests and energy security. Hence, Beijing may seek to capitalize on any decline in Washington's ability to manage regional balances to strengthen its economic and diplomatic presence, in a broader context that reflects the gradual transition of the international system towards greater multipolarity in centers of power. Iran between Strike and Repositioning. Even if Iran suffers severe blows, it is unlikely to disappear from the power equation in the region. Iran is a country with significant geographical and human depth, and possesses a wide network of regional influence tools. Therefore, militarily weakening it may lead to the conflict shifting from direct confrontation to more complex forms of asymmetric conflicts, thereby reshaping the maps of influence in the region instead of ending them. Lebanon: Fragile Balances Amidst Transformations. Lebanon remains one of the most sensitive arenas to the outcomes of the war. If the confrontation leads to a regional weakening of Iran, it is likely to be reflected in the internal balance of power, especially concerning the influence of forces associated with its axis. However, the sectarian nature of the Lebanese system, in addition to its deep economic fragility, makes any sharp shift in these balances fraught with risks of instability. Therefore, the most likely scenario may remain the continuation of Lebanon as an arena of delicate balances between multiple internal and regional forces, with renewed discussion about the future of its political system and the limits of the sectarian formula upon which the state was founded. Turkey, Europe, and Emerging Regional Axes. In this changing context, Turkey may seek to expand its margin of movement as a regional power capable of maneuvering between East and West. Ankara, which combines its NATO membership with its regional ambitions, may see the ongoing transformations as an opportunity to strengthen its political and economic role in the Arab Levant. This may be accompanied by a gradual rapprochement between it and some major Sunni Arab powers. Although such an axis, if formed, will remain constrained by differences in interests and visions, it may reflect an attempt to reformulate the balance of power in the region outside the traditional polarization between Iran and Israel. As for Europe, which has appeared as a hesitant player in the Middle East in recent years, it may find itself compelled to engage more actively in managing the repercussions of these transformations. The stability of the region is directly linked for it to energy security, the reduction of migration waves, and the stability of its southern neighborhood. This may push some European countries to play a more active diplomatic role in managing regional crises, and perhaps also in re-proposing the political path for the Palestinian issue, especially with growing criticism within European public opinion of Israeli policies. The Arab League: Absence and Erosion. Amidst these major transformations, the Arab League appears more like a symbolic framework than an institution capable of managing regional crises. The deep disparities between Arab states, and the reliance of many of them on bilateral or narrow regional alliances, have greatly limited its ability to influence the ongoing transformations in the region. A Major Regional Moment... And the Palestinian Question. The outcomes of the war on Iran may not only determine the shape of the Middle East but may also contribute to accelerating the ongoing transformations in the international system. The region stands today at the intersection of two intertwined conflicts: a regional struggle for influence and the redrawing of power balances, and a broader global struggle over the shape of the international system in the twenty-first century. From this perspective, the Palestinian issue may re-emerge as one of the central knots of regional instability, especially with increasing global criticism of Israeli policies. However, such a possibility does not materialize automatically. History shows that major international moments do not turn into political opportunities unless a national condition capable of reading them and formulating a comprehensive project to invest in them emerges. Here arises the most pressing question: Do Palestinians, amidst deep division and the erosion of the legitimacy of their institutions, have the ability to deal with the requirements of such a historical moment? Or does the magnitude of the ongoing transformations necessitate, above all else, the rebuilding of the political and social foundations of the Palestinian national project itself? The answer to this question is no longer merely an internal Palestinian matter, but has become part of a broader equation related to the Palestinians' ability to transform the ongoing global variables into a historical opportunity. Without restoring the national capacity for political action, and what that requires in terms of rebuilding the entire political system, these transformations may pass as previous pivotal moments in the region's history; moments that open doors of possibilities, but the key question awaits someone who has the ability to seize it and formulate it into a national 'socio-political' project that moves us into the future, starting from networks and initiatives to frame different social groups and involve them in meeting their daily needs, enabling them to survive and endure, and at the same time capable of addressing the world without arrogance or inferiority.