Johnny Mansour: Biden administration will hand Trump a heavy legacy laden with dangerous burdens in Gaza, Lebanon and Ukraine

Adel Shedid: Biden prefers to leave the current crises pending, whether in Lebanon or Gaza, until the next administration takes them over.

Dr. Rifat Sayed Ahmed: The Biden administration will not take effective steps in the transitional phase and “Netanyahu will take over the escalation”

Tarek Wahbi: Biden administration may move towards “crisis management with minimal losses” without seriously seeking to resolve outstanding conflicts

Dr. Muhannad Hafizoglu: The presidential transition in America is often characterized by rising tensions or the outbreak of wars.

US President Joe Biden will leave the White House in about two months, leaving behind major files, internal and external, for President Donald Trump’s administration, most notably the wars in Ukraine and the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, because after the loss of his deputy Kamala Harris, he and his Democratic Party no longer have any interest in cooling the battle fronts that have opened their war warehouses to provide everything necessary for the continuation of the war, whether in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, or other hot files in the world.

The remaining period of President Biden's term seems to be a "golden" time-out for the Israeli occupation state to continue the war of extermination that it has been waging for thirteen months in the Gaza Strip, and has recently expanded its scope to include Lebanon and other Arab countries. On the contrary, it may be a golden opportunity for the head of the occupation government, Benjamin Netanyahu, to escalate his aggression in intensity and area to include other Arab countries, such as: Syria and perhaps Yemen, Iraq and Iran.

Writers and analysts who spoke to “Y” believe that the Biden administration will not take effective steps in the transitional phase to stop the war in Gaza, Lebanon or Ukraine, but may move towards “crisis management with minimal losses” without seriously seeking to resolve the pending conflicts.

An open ticket for Netanyahu to do whatever he wants in Gaza

Many believe that the transitional period in the US presidency will push the Biden administration to hand over a good and acceptable legacy to President Trump, said historian and Middle East researcher Johnny Mansour from Nazareth.

He added: In fact, the Biden administration stood helpless in the face of Netanyahu's approach in dealing with the political and military issue related to the war on Gaza and Lebanon. He pointed out that the crisis of the Biden administration is that it gave Netanyahu an open ticket to do whatever he wants in Gaza, or rather a green light to implement a project planned for years for the complete ethnic cleansing of the Strip, and the expulsion of nearly two million Palestinians, which strengthens the Jewish demographic base in historical Palestine, which has been flabby in recent years with the increase in the percentage of Palestinian presence, compared to the Jewish presence.

Mansour explained that "the US administration was unable to stop the Israeli bull's rage despite all the scenes of genocide and destruction that Netanyahu is carrying out in the Gaza Strip, and currently in Lebanon, to the point that he is ready to drag the Biden administration into a war with Iran, and here this administration was able to, and this is credited to it for not being dragged into this square. It appeared to the world that it is still able to move the threads of global politics in a manner that suits its current and future interests in the Middle East region."

A resounding slap to the Democrats

Regarding the Gaza Strip, Mansour said that the Biden administration, which was committed to defending Israel, and in the face of the horrific scenes and voices that came out in the United States urging it to do something, and the great loss suffered by the US Vice President and presidential candidate, was a resounding slap in the face to it, which means that Biden will not do anything to rein in the raging Israeli bull.

He said: "We believe that Biden will hand over to Trump a heavy legacy laden with dangerous burdens in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Ukraine, in addition to the anger of a large number of countries in the world over the US policy that trampled on all international values by allowing Israel to deal unprecedented blows to international institutions working to create a political and military balance in the world."

Mansour believed that this means that Israel's aspirations go beyond merely dealing with the conflict in the Middle East to the level of directing the management of the region and the world as well.

Mansour concluded by saying: “What the Biden administration has failed to do, intentionally or otherwise, it will not fix during the transitional period, but will remain a lame duck until the reins of government are handed over to someone who has been tried before.”

Biden was not interested in a ceasefire

For his part, Israeli affairs expert Adel Shadid said: US President Joe Biden was not interested in a ceasefire in the previous period, but was committed to supporting the continuation of the war, believing that this was in the interest of Israel and the United States, by seeking to "break the spirit of resistance" within the new Middle East trends.

Shadid pointed out that the current American and Israeli goals are in harmony, which makes the Biden administration in no hurry to end the escalation.

Shadid continued: Biden does not see much benefit in stopping the war, especially at this stage, and it is likely that he will pass the crisis on to the next administration.

He explained that he does not now have to confront the Jewish lobby or a significant segment of Democrats.

He added: "Biden was not worried about the election results, especially after winning the party's nomination and transferring it to Vice President Kamala Harris, which reinforces the belief that Biden may prefer to leave the current crises pending, whether in Lebanon or Gaza, until the next administration takes them over."

"Trump is Israeli in his passions and interests"

For his part, the strategic expert and Egyptian nationalist thinker, Dr. Rifat Sayed Ahmed, said: The Biden administration will not take effective steps in the next transitional phase, noting that "Netanyahu will undertake the violent escalation" by intensifying military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, and the escalation may extend to the Golan and Syria.

Ahmed expected that the region would witness more violent Israeli intervention in the Arab arena, with the possibility of tensions escalating into an Iranian-Israeli confrontation in Iraq or even in the streets of Tehran, but direct US intervention is unlikely.

Ahmed believed that the next administration, led by Trump, would fully support Israel without reducing the levels of conflict in the Middle East, and that any reliance on Trump’s intervention to stop the escalation was a “strategic mistake.”

He pointed out that Trump, whom he described as "Israeli in his inclinations and interests," will not ease the war in Gaza and Lebanon, but will continue to provide full support to Israel, including support for its settlement operations.

Ahmed reviewed Trump's previous positions, such as his assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the "Deal of the Century", and his transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem, considering that some parties' reliance on Trump to stop the war is "mere wishful thinking", and that the region will continue to suffer from the effects of this US-backed Israeli escalation.

Biden administration will leave thorny issues

Lebanese researcher in international relations, Tariq Wahbi, explained that the United States is not a model of good governance as much as it is a bloc of interests, starting with security and then economic.

With the recent Democratic losses, the Biden administration may move toward what is known as “crisis management with minimal losses” without seriously seeking to resolve the outstanding conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, Wahbi said.

Wahbi raised a question about the ability of any American administration to restore stability in the region to what it was before October 7, 2023, adding: "But is there really a roadmap following the ceasefire?"

He pointed out that the guarantees that the next Trump administration will provide may be conditional on its well-known method of financial pressure and dictation, far from any real concession from the Arab parties.

Wahbi believes that the Biden administration will leave thorny issues, such as the crises in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, Syria and Sudan, to the next administration.

Wahbi expressed his concern about the "Trumpian solutions", which tend to focus on the financial dimensions and estimating losses, as if the United States were acting like an insurance company whose primary concern is estimating the cost of crises and the feasibility of financing them.

"The next four years may be difficult to implement and the content until 2028," Wahbi added, expecting difficulty in convincing Biden of solutions before he leaves, despite the efforts of his envoy to the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, who will try to present new solutions to the Democrats before the transfer of power.

Leaving complex files to the Trump administration

As for the Turkish academic and political researcher, Dr. Muhannad Hafizoglu, he said: “The presidential handover and takeover phase in the United States is often characterized by escalating tensions or the imminent outbreak of wars.”

He considered that this period is being exploited by the US administration to evaluate internal and external files that require a new vision.

Oglu explained that during the two-month transition period, the United States is evaluating the hot issues that require new direction, whether within the United States or in its foreign policies.

He explained that this stage allows the outgoing president and team to keep the hot files and complicate them, which increases the challenges for the new team.

Oglu added: The current elections between Biden and Trump make the transitional phase more tense, especially in light of the differences between the two parties.

He expected that the period would witness an escalation in several areas such as Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine, in an attempt by the Biden administration to buy time and leave complex files facing the next Trump administration.

Davutoglu stressed that Biden and his team are likely to keep the situation as it is, and may even deliberately increase tensions, which would pave the way for an escalation phase aimed at putting obstacles in the way of the next Republican administration, specifically Trump, who had promised many changes in his electoral policies.