Three upcoming scenarios that will determine the future of the region

Israel expanded its aggression against Lebanon after transferring the weight of its military operations to the north, and assassinated Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, after assassinating Fouad Shukr, Chief of Staff of the party, and Ibrahim Aqil, Commander of the Radwan Special Forces, thus opening a wave of insane bombing of the southern suburb, Hezbollah’s stronghold.

These successive strikes on the party’s leadership, headquarters, and political and civil structures, in addition to the occupation forcing all the residents of the south, the natural incubator of the resistance, to migrate north of the Litani River towards Beirut, Sidon, and the north, indicate that Israel has taken an advanced step with the intention of dismantling Hezbollah and disarming it, which means influencing the internal and regional Lebanese equation, which is what Netanyahu indicated after the assassination of Sayyed Nasrallah, in terms of redrawing the map of the Middle East.

The Israeli occupation's political and field behavior has pushed Iran to change its position on the strategic patience equation that it has adopted over the past years, and move towards escalation; to restore deterrence and balance, after it was disturbed as a result of the occupation's qualitative strikes on Hezbollah, especially the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

What prompted Iran to make this change is that the Israeli occupation understood strategic patience as a weakness coupled with its unwillingness to go to war, which prompted it to attack the party harshly, which constitutes an important structural element in the relationship with Iran and its national security in the region.

If Israel succeeds in eliminating the party, this will be a prelude to weakening Iran, if not striking it directly with military force. This will necessarily have direct repercussions on the Palestinian cause, in terms of Israel’s return to settling its accounts with Hamas and the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip through an existential decision, to end the Palestinian cause, annex the West Bank and Judaize Jerusalem, and then go with ease to redraw the map of the Middle East under American sponsorship, as they were planning before October 7, under the title of normalization and the Abraham Accords, which Netanyahu revealed in his last speech before the United Nations General Assembly.

Scenarios

The region is living on a hot plate, and walking on a tightrope. In this context, the region is heading towards one of the following scenarios:

Scenario 1: Political solution through negotiations

Starting from stopping the aggression on Gaza and a comprehensive withdrawal from the Strip, then stopping the fighting with Hezbollah and returning the displaced settlers to their settlements in the north, this is a very weak matter; because it constitutes a resounding defeat for Netanyahu and the extreme Zionist right and their theological political program, and it is a scenario that is not a priority for the American administration after the start of the aggression on Lebanon, as Washington wants Israel to create a new reality by force.

Scenario Two: Continuation of the War of Attrition

This is between the Israeli occupation and Hamas and Hezbollah, with the help of Yemen, Iraq, and Iran. This option is currently in place, and its continuation depends on the absence of a regional war, i.e. Israel being satisfied with a limited strike in response to the recent Iranian attack on Israel, which hit a number of military bases, most notably the Nevatim base in the Negev in southern Palestine, which houses the advanced American F-35 aircraft.

The war of attrition is a costly and draining scenario for Israel, and if it continues for a long time, Netanyahu will eventually be forced to return to the option of negotiations, because the Israeli home front will not be able to bear the repercussions of attrition on the human, economic, security and social levels, which may cause, in the foreseeable future, the migration of competencies, minds and capital outside Israel.

Scenario 3: Regional War

This scenario involves Iran entering into a direct confrontation with Israel, which may be incited and prompted by a major Israeli attack on Iranian infrastructure, especially the economic and oil infrastructure, or Iranian nuclear facilities.

Motivating factors

• Netanyahu and the ruling theological Zionist right in Israel have important factors driving the regional war, including:

• The first and second scenarios bring failure to Netanyahu, his government, and his allies from the extreme right, a historic failure for them and for their theological political program, which is represented at the very least by annexing the West Bank and occupying the Gaza Strip. This will practically lead to the failure of redrawing the map of the Middle East according to the terms of the Israeli occupation.

• There is a Zionist majority in Tel Aviv that supports the option of war against Hezbollah, which may extend to striking Iran. This majority was not available to Netanyahu except in the first months following the Battle of the Flood of Al-Aqsa, as a result of the anger and existential fear that Netanyahu promoted after October 7, and expressed by saying that he is waging a second war of independence for Israel.

• The existence of American political cover, based on Israel’s right to defend itself, and Washington providing full material and military support to it, not to mention the presence of American forces on alert in the region. If war breaks out, the United States has announced more than once that it will stand behind and with Israel, in the face of any country that attacks it.

The war scenario, despite its danger, provides Israel, and specifically Benjamin Netanyahu, with a historic opportunity to strike Iranian nuclear facilities with American support, something he has dreamed of for the past decade.

The regional war may seem tempting to Israel, and a historic opportunity for Netanyahu and the extreme right to achieve their dream of imposing occupation sovereignty over all of Palestine. It is not unlikely that they will consider annexing other Arab lands by military force, as a development of the war’s goals, if the Israeli feels that he is winning, and the Arab countries are witnesses who are controlled by anxiety about the consequences of the war and their fear of the entry of the great America with all its military power, which may constitute a new Israeli “Sykes-Picot”.

A regional war means Iran's entry into it with all its strength, which will open the field of war geographically from Iraq, to Syria, to Lebanon, to Palestine, and with Yemeni partnership.

The most dangerous thing about this scenario for Israel is Hezbollah’s use of its missile force in abundance and intensity, and its bombing of vital areas and sensitive infrastructure in Israel, in parallel with the Iranian bombing, and the attack of the Radwan Special Forces from the north, with Palestinian movement inside occupied Palestine, which will put Israel in a difficult situation from within and without.

The repercussions of this war - if it happens - will be enormous for the region, and will change the features of the Middle East and its political geography. Israel's victory over the resistance axis bloc is doubtful, and Israel's failure in it will mean an existential defeat for it.