Contrary to White House statements that the risk of escalation between Iran and Israel and the expansion of the war is not inevitable, former National Security Advisor John Bolton confirmed in statements to Asharq Al-Awsat that what we are currently witnessing is indeed an expanded conflict between Israel and Iran following the assassination of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr deep inside Lebanese territory, and hours later the assassination of Hamas’s political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh deep inside Iranian territory.

Bolton, who is considered one of the hawks of the American Republican Party, expected that the Iranian revenge for the killing of Haniyeh would be effective and strong, saying: “There is indeed a conflict between Israel and Iran now after a series of incidents that took place during the past few weeks, from strikes inside Iraq and targeting and killing Fouad Shukr, the second man in Hezbollah, and then the assassination of Haniyeh, and the question is what form of response will Iran take in its retaliatory response against Israel?”

“I have to say that Iran is going to do something very significant and significant,” Bolton continued. “This is evident in the fact that the Iranian Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) prayed over Haniyeh’s coffin in a large ceremony, in addition to his speech in which he vowed to respond harshly. I think this is a very significant event, and the response this time will be different from what happened last April when Iran fired 320 missiles and drones at Israel without much effect.”

Israel strengthens its defenses
The former US national security adviser explained that Iranian threats of a strong retaliation will make Israel bolster its defenses, but we have to see what Iran will do, and how Israel will respond. He said: “Again, it will be very dangerous because when Iran fails to protect people like Ismail Haniyeh during his hosting in Tehran, it puts Supreme Leader Khamenei in a very embarrassing position, so the expectation is that there will be a very strong Iranian response.”
As for the form of the response, and whether it was coordinated with Tehran’s proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, Bolton explained that it is difficult to know for sure the form and extent of the Iranian response, because “previous Iranian attacks against Israel included more than 200 ballistic missiles, including 120 missiles that did not reach Israel and either exploded on the launch pad or crashed before reaching the target, so it was indeed an attack that was designed in a way that did not lead to escalation. But you have to look at what would have happened if those other 60 ballistic missiles had actually reached their targets inside Israel. I do not think that this time Iran can swallow its pride and ignore what happened, so I think it is likely at this point that Iran will launch a serious response that targets targets in Israel, causes a number of casualties, and causes a lot of damage.”

Regarding the White House officials’ assessment that the expansion of the conflict is not inevitable, Bolton said: “I think the American administration does not want a wider conflict, but from the Israeli point of view, the assessment of the situation is that it has already entered a wider war, as Hezbollah is bombing northern Israel with missiles, the Houthi militia is threatening navigation in the Red Sea and international trade routes, and the militias in Iraq and Syria supported by Iran are launching attacks from time to time. Despite the United States’ desire to avoid a wider war, I think that the matter has exceeded the United States’ estimates, and I think that Israel sees itself surrounded from all sides, and I do not think that it will retreat at this stage.”

Postponement of negotiations
Bolton stressed that the assassination of Haniyeh, who is the chief political negotiator for Hamas, will greatly affect the ceasefire negotiations that the Biden administration sought to achieve a political victory through. He said: “There will be a significant delay in these negotiations, and it must be recognized that these negotiations were not even close to reaching an agreement because the basic issues are the same, and the central question is how long the ceasefire issue can remain suspended without an answer.”

Bolton admitted that President Biden wanted to push for these negotiations to stop the war in Gaza and release the detainees held by Hamas in order to achieve a political victory that would establish a historical legacy for his term in the White House, and it seems that the successive events have shattered his hopes of reaching this agreement. He said: “I think Biden will continue to push for these negotiations, but I also think that the two parties (Hamas and Israel) are still far from reaching an agreement.”

Weakness of American influence
Regarding the US administration's loss of influence over Israel, Bolton stressed that the US administration is exerting intense and continuous pressure on the Israelis and the Palestinian parties through some channels.

Asked about US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s denial of his country’s knowledge of the plans to assassinate Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, and his assertion that Washington did not receive any prior notification from Israel, and did not participate in the attack, and whether this means weakness and lack of American influence over Israel, Bolton said: “I think the Israelis did not inform the US administration of their plans because they feared the information would leak or be transferred to Iran, given the number of supporters of Tehran who worked in the administration, and some of them are still working, and this of course reflects the weakness of the influence that the White House has over Israel under Biden, and I think this is true.”

Netanyahu-Biden call
Regarding the contact between Netanyahu and President Biden, and the extent of Israel's ability to drag the United States into an open war in the region, and push Washington into a direct confrontation with Iran, Bolton said: "The main purpose of Netanyahu's conversation with President Biden is to inform him of what Israel knows about the movements in the region, and to inform him of the steps that Israel intends to take. I do not think that Biden will address the ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, which I believe have ended and there will be no path to negotiations anytime soon. I do not think that there is an intention to involve the United States in any current moves, but it depends a lot on what Iran will do, and until we know the form of the Iranian response, it is difficult to know Washington's future directions."

Regarding the impact of Israel targeting Haniyeh inside Israel on the agenda of the new Iranian president, who has been described as a reformist and encourages communication with the West, Bolton said: “I don’t think that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has a significant impact on the agenda of the new Iranian president and his ability to conduct diplomatic negotiations with the West, because the goal was to assassinate Haniyeh, and they found him in a suitable place to carry out the assassination plan. On the other hand, the Iranian leader is the one who makes the decisions, and therefore the new Iranian president is merely an executor of the policies that the Supreme Leader sets on national security issues.”

Iran with Trump or Harris
As for the shape of US policies towards Iran, whether under a new Trump administration or Kamala Harris, Bolton said: “I will not be involved in either administration, but my view is that there will be no peace and stability in the Middle East until those in power are removed. The Ayatollah regime is the primary threat to peace and security, and until the Iranian people are able to control the government, we should expect more unrest, and I think both Trump and Harris agree on that. Trump is certainly not willing to do what is necessary to help the Iranian people overthrow the government, even though the government in Tehran is less popular than it was when Trump was president. I don’t know how a Harris administration will deal with Iran.”