Why does Netanyahu reject the prisoner exchange deal?

In the equation of reaching a prisoner exchange deal, there are many key parties in shaping the parameters of that deal, foremost of which is Netanyahu, who is the determining and fundamental factor in completing this deal or not, and he is also the one who, with his Jewish fascist partners, plays the role of holding it back, despite all the flexibility. expressed by Hamas, in order to complete the deal. It no longer requires a permanent ceasefire, nor a comprehensive withdrawal in the first phase of the agreement, and the Palestinian resistance is also concerned with this agreement, in response to popular demands and the concerns and needs of the people, and working to lift the siege, and restore its strength and capabilities, and benefit from the period of rest and calm, and strive to do In the reconstruction process.

Likewise, the current American administration wants to complete this deal, in order to use it to raise the electoral score of its candidate Biden, in light of his weak appearance in the electoral debate with Trump, which prompted many leaders of the Democratic Party to demand his replacement as the party’s presidential candidate, and the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is now in control. In the northern card, and in the fate of the displaced settlers, whose return is considered dependent on stopping the war on the Gaza Strip. We should also not forget the Israeli military and security institutions, which see that the army, after nine months, has reached the point of wear and tear, and is unable to fight the war in the previous way. There is an acute shortage of the human element, a lack of competence, capabilities, and missiles, a decline in morale, a decline in motivation, rebellion, resignations, and refusal to... Joining the service.

It is clear after the response provided by Hamas to Biden’s proposal, in which it waived its demand for a permanent ceasefire and a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal in the first phase, provided that these conditions will be negotiated by creating an intermediate phase between the second and third phases, so that no soldier will be released. Israeli without reaching an agreement regarding a permanent ceasefire, comprehensive Israeli withdrawal, and the return of the displaced to their places of residence, as well as withdrawal from the “Netzarim” axis, which separates the north of the Gaza Strip from its south, and withdrawal from the Philadelphia axis and the Rafah crossing. This response from the Hamas movement in the name of the Palestinian resistance put additional pressure on Netanyahu, and deepened the dilemma, especially since the military and security institutions stand by the completion of the prisoner exchange deal, even if the price is Hamas remaining in power, as the army is no longer able to continue the war in the right way. The previous, as well as the popular protests carried out by the families of the prisoners are escalating day after day, and there are threats that the streets and squares will be filled with more than a million demonstrators, if Netanyahu does not take advantage of this opportunity and agree to the exchange deal, not to mention that the political opposition also stands by the completion of the deal, and agrees With the demonstrators on political demands, such as holding early sixth general elections and toppling the Netanyahu government. Netanyahu is in deep trouble, and is losing political and popular legitimacy, but his obsession and fear of losing parliamentary legitimacy, so his political decision has become controlled by his partners from national and religious Zionism, Ben Gvir and Smotrich.

Ben Gvir said at the security and political council meeting to Netanyahu: “We are not in your vase, and if you go for a prisoner exchange deal and stop the war on the Gaza Strip, you must know that you will remain alone, and we will overthrow the government from within it. Overthrowing the government means that for Netanyahu.” Going to a sixth early election, and forming an investigation committee, is known to hold him responsible for the security and intelligence failure on October 7, 2023, in addition to the defeat that occurred in that process, as well as the charges pending against him before the Israeli judiciary, bribery, bad credit, and breach of trust The military and security institutions, along with the political establishment, will escalate, and the fissures, rifts, resignations, and refusal to join the military establishment will increase. Therefore, Netanyahu is obligated in light of these crises to walk on a thin rope, so that he does not fall, and his political and personal future ends, and he spends the rest of his life in prison, and therefore his choice remains. Procrastination, procrastination, evasion, and prolonging the negotiations, and holding Hamas responsible for not reaching an agreement and a prisoner exchange deal. He will continue to follow the results of the Iranian presidential elections and who won them, as well as the American presidential debate between the stuttering old Biden and the impudent Trump, and he has become fully convinced that prolonging it will take place. Extending his political survival, and unleashing his regional ambition, will only be achieved through Trump’s victory in these elections. With Trump's victory, the shape of the fourth phase of the war, its seriousness and the extent of its expansion will be determined. Therefore, Netanyahu's choice, in order not to go to prison with the fall of his government from within, is to launch a comprehensive war on the West Bank and Jerusalem to resolve the conflict and gain sovereignty over them, and to resort to "tamtata" and evasion, and to prolong the negotiation period until the arrival of Trump, as there are controversial issues over which the negotiation will take a long time, such as the Israeli withdrawal from the two axes. Salah al-Din "Philadelphia", and the "Netzarim" axis that separates the north of the Gaza Strip from its south, and the Rafah crossing, as well as negotiating the names, identity and numbers of prisoners with high sentences and life sentences, who will be released in that deal, and the place of release: will they return to their places of residence, or They will be deported to the Gaza Strip, or abroad. These are issues that will be negotiated for a long time. The continuation of the war will be a lifeline for Netanyahu.

Netanyahu's choice, in order not to go to prison with the fall of his government from within, is to launch a comprehensive war on the West Bank and Jerusalem to resolve the conflict and gain sovereignty over them, and to "cook" and evade, and to prolong the negotiations until Trump arrives.