Israeli Writer: Netanyahu is preparing the pretext to maintain Hamas' rule in the Gaza Strip as it is

By Amos Harel

In recent days, the statements of the Israeli leadership have become more severe regarding a possible operation carried out by the army in Rafah. This is happening despite many obstacles - the density of the Palestinian population in the city, the tension with Egypt, which opposes this move, American criticism, the fact that the army liberated the majority of the reserve army units that operated in the Gaza Strip, and the arrival of the month of Ramadan in about a month. It is true that the military operation is on the table, but there are suspicions that whoever is accelerating the discussion about it is doing so with different motives and agendas.

The first person to start talking about an expected attack on Rafah was Defense Minister Yoav Galant. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then quickly published a statement, in which he said that he had instructed the army to prepare the move (Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy said yesterday in the government session that the plan had been ready for a long time). Netanyahu has other calculations, more than the fact that without a military or non-military solution to the Rafah issue, the tunnels in Sinai could allow Hamas, in the future, to restore some of its military capabilities.

The threat of an operation in the southern Gaza Strip could be used as a pressure tool on Hamas, in the hope that this will allow negotiations to free the hostages. It also helps shift the media debate through which it appears that the negotiations are now suspended, not only because of Hamas' extremist demands, but also because Netanyahu does not show any willingness to rescue the vehicle stuck in the mud.

As is the case with many decisions taken by the prime minister in the war, this is also a policy that is researched through polls, and aims to serve the shrinking popular base, which would like to see Netanyahu clash with the American administration. Not only that, but it seems that there is preparation for something else. Netanyahu has been talking for weeks about achieving absolute victory over Hamas. Despite the tightening siege on the movement's leaders' hiding places, there are still no indications that Israel is close to this goal. But there is the possibility of accusing someone else of not fulfilling promises. They are the Americans who impose restrictions, for example, or the leftists who annoy us, or the generals who are unable to carry out the mission, and this will not be the first time that Netanyahu has acted in this way.

Over the weekend, conversations from the cabinet meeting were leaked, showing that Netanyahu was surprised that the army freed the majority of the reserve units that participated in the fighting in Gaza. Every operation in Rafah, especially if it is in parallel with the fighting in Khan Yunis, will require the reinforcement of forces again and the invitation of combat units from other places. Therefore, the army prefers to focus on the refugee camps in the center of the Strip, where there is still a Hamas battalion and a half that has not yet been defeated.

After two weeks of chaos at the Kerem Shalom crossing, the police and army yesterday began to impose order. The Chief of Staff spoke with the Commissioner General of Police, Kobi Shabtai, and asked him to intervene in order to stop the disturbance that prevents trucks from entering Gaza. In turn, Shabtai sent 500 policemen who evacuated about 40 right-wing demonstrators. This, of course, as expected, led to the anger of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who demanded that Halevy not speak with Shabtai except through him.

Netanyahu strengthened his provocative approach, during his visit yesterday to the “Yalom” unit, where he stated there that “Israel will make the Strip demilitarized, through its security control over the west of the Jordan River, including the Gaza Strip. It seems that there is no alternative to this in the foreseeable future. This “What we say to the international community, and also to the president of the United States: there will always be our own security control, and if there is a need for our presence inside the sector, then, we will be there.”

In other words, not only is Netanyahu postponing any “day after” settlement in the Strip, but he also states that the army will remain there for the foreseeable future. If we deal with things as they are, this fundamentally contradicts American policy - and thus could close the door on normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia. The question is whether the Biden administration decides to act decisively this time. Yesterday, Netanyahu and Biden spoke by phone, and Biden asked him to ensure the evacuation of the civilian population from Rafah, as a condition for the army’s entry into the region.

These matters could become clearer in Cairo, where negotiations on a hostage exchange deal are supposed to be renewed tomorrow, with the participation of representatives from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt. The American delegation will be led by CIA Director William Burns. Until yesterday, Israel had not announced that it would send a delegation to the negotiations, after Netanyahu considered Hamas’ demands unacceptable.

Americans are shocked by what Israel is doing, and so are the mediators. It is true that Hamas's demands are extreme, as Netanyahu said, but this was not surprising to him. Moreover, the plan of the deal as agreed upon two weeks ago in Paris - the liberation of prisoners and hostages through three stages, in exchange for the liberation of a large number of Palestinian prisoners and a continuous ceasefire - took place on the Israeli initiative at a time when the mediators were pushing it forward, and in In the end, they discovered that Netanyahu was not interested, and he backed down.

Netanyahu's position on the deal is a direct continuation of his statements regarding continued control in the Gaza Strip and Rafah. On all issues, the Prime Minister leans towards the right and adopts an aggressive approach. According to his statements so far, he is not interested in a hostage-free deal that could expose his coalition to the risk of disintegration. His government will not withstand a ceasefire for a few months in the Strip, which will also include Hezbollah on the northern border, and raises difficult questions - Why did we not win? What really happened on October 7? The deal will not serve the political survival associated with far-right partners. The leaders of the "official camp", Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, will have to reconsider their steps soon.

They approach the Sinwar

The process of pursuing Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, is not fake news. Apparently, there are many indications that Israel is close to arresting him, or killing whoever planned the “massacre” in “The Cover.” Al-Sinwar has been present in the tunnels and bunkers that Hamas has dug under Khan Yunis, since the war began, it seems, and considering that he surrounds himself with helpers, protection, and family members, and possibly also with some Israeli hostages, it is difficult to believe that he will move freely from his place of hiding to another place. Without leaving any evidence.

Over the past two weeks, contact with him has been cut off, and in his absence, it is difficult for the Hamas leadership abroad to formulate a position on the negotiations. This does not mean that he died, but rather it seems that he chose to adopt a more calm approach, in order to avoid harm. Currently, the army and Shin Bet are approaching him.

Recently, rooms and tunnels were found in which Al-Sinwar was present after the war began. Basically, a booklet written by him was found (the last note was written on January 14 this year). The army’s control over a technological infrastructure belonging to Hamas, and the major breach that took place in revealing the movement’s communications networks, exposed it more to Israeli intelligence. The army even systematically blew up the tunnels linking Khan Yunis to other sites.

Israel wants to reinforce the narrative that it is close to Sinwar. Over the weekend, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar visited the tunnels in Khan Yunis. When Bar talked about wanted people hiding underground, he meant the leader of Hamas. During the start of the ground maneuver in the Strip, the army activated a large force, accompanied by an air strike, which was described as a “mill.” Hamas was unable to withstand it, and it left great devastation in the northern Gaza Strip. The process now in Khan Yunis is more precise, and is based on working methods that have been developed over the past months.

Over time, serious damage could be done to Hamas' military and civilian capabilities. However, this plan suffers from a central weakness: it requires months of effort. And it's not just that the United States and Egypt don't have the time or patience for this - the hostages simply don't have much time either.