The Iranian-American War Continues Despite the Fragile Truce

Amidst the fragile truce between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the ambiguous, intermittent, and incomplete negotiations characterized by contradictory statements and extensions without a specified end time, and between the possibility of a third war breaking out between the two parties after the 12-day war and the recent war that America called the (Epic Fury) war, it is worth noting that the dominant feature of this war is the lack of clarity from the Iranian side. President Trump wrote on his 'Truth Social' platform: 'Iran just informed us that they are in a state of collapse. They want us to open the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible, while they try to understand their leadership situation (and I think they will be able to!).' The demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and not continue closing the ports came in parallel with Iran's attempt to settle its leadership's situation and divisions. On the other hand, America is studying Iranian reactions and Trump's declaration of a historic unilateral victory for this war against Iran, without reaching a practical agreement for negotiations. Meanwhile, Trump's statements suggested the possibility of resuming the war again and then returning to the negotiating table.

It is worth mentioning the regional tour of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, which included a visit to Moscow, carrying files of strategic bilateral cooperation. After his return to Tehran, he is expected to consult with the current leaders of the Iranian regime. The American-Iranian negotiation process is slow, without any meaningful or tangible progress. Moreover, there is difficulty in communicating with the current Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei due to his injury and disappearance from public view. Within this framework, and after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the American blockade of Iranian ports, the internal Iranian power struggle is escalating with increasing differences of opinion regarding the sovereign decisions governing the Islamic Republic of Iran. Most likely, there are three forces with different decisions and opinions, consisting of the Revolutionary Guard, the technocratic government, and the Iranian people. Undoubtedly, the goals of these three are different, and no one accepts the decisions of the other. The contradictions have become clear on the ground. Following up on the above, the resignation of Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on April 23, who was part of the Iranian negotiating delegation in Islamabad, the main reason for his resignation was that he was ordered to do so and was placed under house arrest. Meanwhile, President Bazkeshian's government and his foreign minister are seeking a solution and an agreement with America. The Revolutionary Guard, despite being exhausted as a result of previous strikes from wars on the military structure's forces, wants to continue and pushes towards war again, threatening with new capabilities in the upcoming war. It is necessary to mention the mysterious explosions inside Iran, the deterioration of the economic situation, and the escalation of internal divisions. In contrast, America is not currently in a hurry to conclude any agreement, while its naval fleet is stationed in the region and is pushing for the presence of the (Ghost Saint) USS Santa Barbara, which is moving to resume the war against Iran again. The time factor at this stage plays a significant role in America's favor and the possibility of an internal Iranian economic explosion under the imposed blockade, and from this perspective, its political and economic isolation from the world, which naturally the Iranian people are not satisfied with in the first place and will cause a crack in the cohesion between the people and the regime, leading to popular protests and demands, especially after it has not been able to export oil, and after 12 days from now, oil storage capacity will reach its peak and it will be forced to stop production. The question remains whether Iran will continue to incur losses or whether it will force the Revolutionary Guard to comply with the agreement and curb its proxies in the Middle East (Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon) from continuing missile attacks on Israel and Arab and Gulf countries? I must also mention that during the war, the Revolutionary Guard directed more missiles towards the United Arab Emirates, specifically Dubai, than it did towards American bases and Israel, according to statistics. Looking at the Arab countries, it directed missiles towards the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. In view of the foregoing, we find that the Bazkeshian government faces difficulty in making a decision and is seeking effective talks and a solution in this war that has not yet ended.

It cannot be denied that the Revolutionary Guard controls 40% of the Iranian economy in the construction, telecommunications, oil production, and banking sectors, not to mention military production forces. Undoubtedly, the Revolutionary Guard is not only a military force but also an economic empire, and its economic principle is 'resistant absorption.' However, the current stage that Iran is going through is described as a test phase under increasing sanctions on the banking sector, the blockade of ports, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the repercussions of the war on the Iranian economy by not being able to export oil to its main ally, China. All these pressures and indicators point to the possibility of internal cracks day by day, and with the emergence of the group that calls for the term (Army and People) that rejects the policy of the Revolutionary Guard and the technocratic government, and the increasing use of this idea and term during this situation and the current divisions after it was demanded for the first time during previous demonstrations, it returns to the first demands of the people after the deterioration of the currency and Iran's inability to export oil and reaching full oil storage capacity. And in order to avoid closing oil wells due to the difficulty of reopening them and resuming oil pumping again, which may take a month at best and may not be restarted at worst, and in line with the foregoing, problems between the people and the ruling powers will worsen and destabilize the silent agreement between them, which is (the economic equation): no freedom of choice, but cheap oil derivatives for the people and state-subsidized bread. With these pressures and the increasing cost of living, the equation will be torn apart, and this is what urges the technocratic government to accelerate American negotiations, and with the tightening of the blockade, which necessarily prolongs the payment of salaries to the Revolutionary Guard. It must be noted that the economic deterioration and taking into account the popular explosion and the return to demonstrations and the exploitation of this situation by the external and internal opposition and supporting the movement to direct the blow towards what they want, it seems that the current regime is cracking externally and internally and the people's insistence on implementing the rule of (the people and the army) and seeking to destabilize the current situation, and in this context and with the possibility of resuming the American war on Iran again in the absence of an agreement in the near future.

External war and internal discontent are two factors that darken the future Iranian scene, and in this vein, it must be taken into account: if the war continues, will Iran resume striking its neighbors in the Gulf and Arab countries, such as the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan? It is important in this regard that the next battle, if it occurs with the continuation of the economic blockade, will lead to the dissipation of the forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran by supporting its arms and continuing its proxy war in the Middle Eastern countries, especially Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, who face multiple forces, the most important of which are the countries that seek to restore their sovereignty over the army and decisive state decisions without any parties supported by Iran that unfortunately plague some Arab Middle Eastern countries.