Why has the United States not recognized the Palestinian state...? Between the duality of Israeli influence and the rise of new lobbying powers.

Despite the increasing European recognition of the Palestinian state, and the joining of central countries like France and Britain to this path, the American stance remains stagnant, insisting on not recognizing the state of Palestine. This apparent steadfastness conceals a complex web of strategic calculations, internal power balances, and the dominance of pro-Israel lobbying groups that have formed a structural part of the decision-making process in Washington for decades.
The United States, unlike Europe, views the Middle East through the lens of Israel's security, linking its vital interests in the region to its ability to ensure its military and political superiority. Therefore, recognition of the Palestinian state has remained "outside American calculations," as any step of this kind would be interpreted as a threat to Israel's security or the organic structure of its alliance with it.
However, recent years, especially since the outbreak of the ongoing Israeli aggression against Gaza, have begun to witness tangible shifts within the American political, academic, and economic community, indicating a shaking of part of the traditional equation and a decline in the "political sanctity" of unconditional support for Israel.
First: The decline of the dominance of pro-Israel groups and the emergence of counter-lobbying forces ...
For the first time in decades, American lobbying groups have emerged seeking to counter Israeli influence within Washington, calling for a redefinition of American interests on an independent basis, rather than based on what Israel imposes.
Among the most prominent of these groups:
The Anti-Zionist Committee (AZAPAC), which recently appeared within American political institutions, presenting itself as a lobbying force working to restore balance within Congress and adopt policies that serve American national interests away from Israeli political blackmail,
Jewish Voice for Peace and IfNotNow, two influential Jewish organizations that have significantly expanded their role since the Gaza war, advocating for an end to unconditional support for Israel...
The rise of progressive politicians within the Democratic Party, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, and Bernie Sanders, who have openly criticized Israel and its racist and settlement policies.
These forces were previously unable to influence, but today they possess media presence and populist influence that makes ignoring their discourse impossible.
Second: American universities… the spark of the biggest transformation ...
American universities – from Harvard to Columbia and from Stanford to Michigan – have witnessed the largest wave of solidarity with Palestine in modern American history.
Protests, student alliances, academic boycott decisions, and pressures on administrations to condemn Israeli war crimes.
These movements were not just protests; they transcended that to the emergence of a new political culture within the rising generations, which considers that unconditional support for Israel harms America's image and puts it at odds with its declared values regarding human rights.
Third: The business and technology sector breaks its silence ..
Voices have grown within Silicon Valley and among major businessmen criticizing Washington's bias, calling for a more balanced policy, with public positions from influencers and major companies stating that America's international image has become a burden on its technological and economic interests due to its unconditional ties to Israel.
Fourth: The widening gap between European and American positions ...
With the continued recognition of the Palestinian state by Europe, Washington has begun to find itself internationally isolated.
Europe – especially France, Spain, Ireland, and Norway – has adopted a discourse that holds Israel responsible for aggression and calls for a political solution based on recognition of the Palestinian state.
Meanwhile, America remains a prisoner of red lines set by Israeli lobbying groups.
The continuation of this disparity will place Washington in the position of the only state obstructing the establishment of the Palestinian state, complicating its relations with its European partners and weakening its global image.
Fifth: The steadfast Arab positions and their rising role...
The Arab stance, especially the Saudi one, has become clearer:
Peace with Israel will not be possible without a real political price, which is the recognition of the rights of the Palestinian people, foremost among them the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
This Arab steadfastness, supported by new regional equations (from energy to massive investments), has forced Washington to realize that ignoring Arab interests will not be possible in the next phase, and that the free protection of Israel has become strategically costly.

Towards a potential shift in the American position?
The sum of these transformations – within universities, the business sector, the political street, within the Jewish community itself, and between Europe and the Arab world – gradually opens the door to a change in American calculations.
Recognition of the Palestinian state may not come soon, but it has become a matter on the table of American politics, after being completely outside the discussion for decades.
America will soon discover that continuing to ignore Palestinian national rights will not protect Israel, but will make it a burden on the status and global influence of the United States.
And that any regional peace or broad normalization will not