Talk has increased in the corridors of Washington about “American recognition of a Palestinian state” following signals from President Joe Biden and his Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, pointing in this direction in recent days.

Biden has not completely changed his position in support of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip yet, and has not called for a ceasefire.

Also, decades of Washington's failed attempts to push towards a two-state solution have made some analysts question the seriousness of the Biden administration's commitment to this proposal, especially in the year of difficult presidential elections.

On the contrary, others believe that Biden may take this step in an effort to secure the votes of Muslim and Arab voters, young people and minorities, who were shocked by his stance in support of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip.

"I think we'll be able to work on something... I think there are ways this could work," Biden said, referring to a possible post-war agreement that could establish a demilitarized Palestinian state.

Reports indicate that Biden has already assigned the State Department to consider what a demilitarized Palestine would look like, “based on other models from around the world.”

At the same time, the talk of American recognition of a Palestinian state is linked to a broader framework that includes Biden’s endeavor to sponsor Saudi-Israeli normalization, preceded by the conclusion of a US-Saudi defense agreement, with all parties agreeing to formulate irreversible steps towards establishing a Palestinian state.

The American newspaper, The Washington Post, said on Thursday that American and Arab officials are working on developing a comprehensive plan to establish lasting peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis, at a time when the Israeli government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu renews its rejection of any talk about the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Possible unilateral recognition

Michael Doran, director of the Center for Middle East Peace and Security at the Hudson Institute, who previously worked in the White House, the State Department, and the Pentagon under several Republican administrations, expected that Biden would recognize a Palestinian state this summer.

Duran wrote on the institute’s website that “recognition of a Palestinian state will be an electoral ploy, as much as it is a foreign policy strategy, which the Biden team will seek to announce by early summer, just in time for the start of the presidential election campaign based on its historic achievement.”

Doran referred to the confirmation of State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, who said, on January 31, “We support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, and we are doing a lot of work within the government to think about how to achieve this.”

According to Duran, this has led to the dismay of Israeli officials because “the Biden administration has fallen in love with the idea of establishing a Palestinian state, and unilateral recognition is a means of putting pressure on Israel.”

Jonathan Schachter, a researcher at the Hudson Institute and former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and an expert in US-Israeli relations, agreed that the Biden administration is seriously considering recognizing a Palestinian state.

Schachter noted, "The Biden administration's apology tour in Michigan confirms that local political considerations will increasingly influence Washington's policy toward Israel."

Schachter highlighted what he considered to be “Biden’s remarkable commitment to American supporters of Hamas, even when they called for the mass murder of Jews, tore down the American flag, and attempted to climb the White House fence. And now, with American Arab and Muslim leaders threatening not to support Biden in the November elections.” Next, the White House shifted from silence to trying to exploit the situation.”

Normalization is the goal

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Ambassador David Mack, former Assistant Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs and currently an expert at the Atlantic Institute in Washington, said that talk about the Biden administration studying some options for making changes in US policy regarding recognition of a Palestinian state is “completely reasonable.” 

Ambassador Mack noted, "It is worth noting that this talk comes on the heels of a statement issued by the UK Foreign Secretary supporting the same idea. Most importantly, the Netanyahu government has not been very helpful by refusing to negotiate the establishment of a Palestinian state with the Palestinian Authority."

He added, "I also believe that the American administration is encouraged by reports that Mahmoud Abbas is holding serious discussions with Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia about reforming his administration by playing a more symbolic role and bringing in a younger executive president to the Palestinian state."

He believes that President Abbas could play a role similar to Israeli President Isaac Herzog, leaving the real rule to someone who enjoys the trust of the major Arab countries, the United Nations, and the United States. He added, "The Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority can attract more political and financial support, to meet the needs of Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza."

At the same time, a number of commentators believe that the White House's efforts are primarily focused on seeking to achieve normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

They consider that the efforts made by Brett McGurk, President Biden's National Security Council advisor for Middle East affairs, to pass the proposal to rebuild the Palestinian Authority, by focusing on a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, will fail.

At the same time, Akbar Ahmed, a writer for HuffPost, said in a blog post on the “X” website, “I heard from an American official who was asked earlier this week to explore making Palestine a member of international institutions as a state.” He said that they realize that this effort is “comical fake steps,” and stressed that “it is impossible, given Biden’s history, for him to take these steps seriously.”

Khaled Al-Jundi, director of the Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, agrees with the previous proposal, and said in a blog post on the “X” website, “Just talking about the state is a distraction... This is meaningless talk, unless they talk about ending the occupation.” "The Israeli, all that doesn't matter."

Source: Al Jazeera